Domestic coffee prices
After losing the 110,000 VND mark yesterday, the domestic coffee market this morning February 4 continued to plummet, shocking investors and farmers.
Agents purchased on average throughout the Central Highlands region with a price drop of up to 4,300 VND/kg, falling deeply to 95,600 VND/kg. This is the largest daily decrease recorded since the beginning of the crop year to date.
In Lam Dong province, the price of raw coffee beans decreased the most in the region with a margin of 4,600 VND/kg, only trading at 94,700 VND/kg. Two "capitals" Dak Lak and Gia Lai both recorded a decrease of 4,300 VND, bringing the purchase price to the same level of 95,500 VND/kg.
Dak Nong province (old) although maintaining the highest price of 95,700 VND/kg, has also "disappeared" by 4,200 VND compared to the previous session.
World coffee prices
The direct cause of the domestic price collapse was the disastrous trading session of the international market last night.
On the London exchange, Robusta coffee futures for March 2026 were massively sold off, falling by 219 USD (equivalent to 5.43%), closing at 3,810 USD/ton. This is the lowest price of Robusta in the past 6 weeks.
Similarly, the New York Arabica exchange also did not escape the price storm when the March 2026 term lost 16.15 cents (4.84%), closing the session at 317.10 cents/lb, falling to the lowest level in 5.5 months.
The key factor pushing prices down is the weather report from Somar Meteorologia, which said that the Minas Gerais region of Brazil received 69.8 mm of rainfall last week, reaching 117% of the historical average. This abundant rainfall completely relieved drought worries, causing hedge funds to aggressively liquidate previous short-selling positions.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The market is entering a deep correction phase as price supporting factors are almost gone. Supply from Vietnam flooded the market as data showed exports in 2025 increased sharply by 17.5%. At the same time, inventories on the ICE exchange are recovering, with Robusta reaching a 2-month peak and Arabica reaching a 3.25-month peak, further strengthening the downward sentiment.
With breaking the important technical support milestone of 4,000 USD (Robusta) and 96,000 VND (domestic), market sentiment is very weak. The possibility of immediate strong recovery is very difficult when the pressure of the new crop season from Brazil.
