Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning, April 9, recorded green again after a series of consecutive declines.
According to surveys in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, coffee prices simultaneously increased from 600 to 700 VND/kg, bringing the average price level of the whole region to the threshold of 85,900 VND/kg.
In Dak Nong province (old), the purchase price recorded an increase of 700 VND, pushing the price to the highest level in the region at 86,000 VND/kg.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai localities both had an increase of 600 VND, currently trading stably at the 85,800 VND/kg mark.
In Lam Dong province alone, coffee prices also recovered by 600 VND, currently listed at 85,300 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
On the international market, futures exchanges also recorded positive changes in last night's trading session. The New York Stock Exchange led the upward momentum when the price of Arabica futures for May 2026 surged 7.95 cents (equivalent to 2.78%), closing at 294.05 cents/lb.
At the same time, the London exchange also witnessed the Robusta flush recover slightly by an additional 13 USD (equivalent to 0.39%), closing the session at 3,328 USD/ton. The main driving force for the coffee price to break through came from the fact that the Brazilian Real unexpectedly increased sharply to the highest level in 23 months against the USD. The strengthening of the Brazilian domestic currency has directly limited export sales activities from farmers in this country, and at the same time triggered a wave of short buys from speculative funds on the exchange.
Market outlook
In addition to the exchange rate factor, the market also received support from reports of a decrease in actual supply. The Brazilian Ministry of Commerce has just released data showing that coffee exports of this country in March decreased by 31% compared to the same period last year, reaching only about 151,000 tons.
For the Robusta line, the inventory shortage monitored by the ICE exchange continued to tighten when it fell to its lowest level in 3.75 months, with only 4,005 lots left. This information has temporarily eased the oversupply pressure that has weighed heavily on the market for the past two weeks.
However, the recovery momentum still faces major resistance from long-term macroeconomic forecasts. StoneX organization gave a cautious assessment when saying that the global coffee surplus in 2026 will expand to 10 million bags, marking the largest surplus in the last 6 years.
The prospect of a "super crop" in Brazil with expected output reaching a record 75.9 million bags from Marex Group Plc is still the main factor holding back Arabica prices. In Vietnam, the growth momentum of coffee exports in the first quarter reached 14% (equivalent to 585,000 tons) is also a barrier that prevents Robusta prices from breaking through too strongly.
In the current context, geopolitical and weather factors still play a role as price supporting variables. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is still putting pressure on shipping costs, insurance and fuel costs for global roasters.
In addition, rainfall in key farming areas of Brazil such as Minas Gerais last week only reached 47% of the historical average, raising concerns about actual yield compared to theoretical figures on paper.
The actual price at the purchasing yards may differ depending on the quality of the seeds and the actual transaction agreement.
