February 18, 2025: Speech by US President Donald Trump
President Donald Trump's February 18 speech could disrupt the market. Although the speech is considered "temporary", the market will still closely monitor any statements related to the US economic strategy, fiscal stimulus, trade relations or tariff policies.
Potential impact on gold prices:
dovish statement: If President Trump supports low interest rates or delays tariffs, the USD could weaken. When this currency depreciates, gold becomes a more attractive store of value, potentially pushing gold prices up.
tough speech: If the speech raises concerns about the possibility of strengthening the US dollar or tightening monetary conditions, gold prices could fall. Tougher tariff policies could also increase market volatility and demand for the US dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices.
February 19, 2025: FOMC meeting minutes
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on February 19 will reveal the monetary policy outlook of the US Federal Reserve (FED). Because the market is very sensitive to interest rates, this minutes play an important role in determining whether the FED will continue to tighten or loosen monetary policy in the coming months.
Potential impact on gold prices:
A tough voice: If the FOMC minutes show a tougher stance, suggesting that the Fed could continue raising interest rates to control inflation, gold prices could be under downward pressure. Higher interest rates often support the US dollar, making uninterest-bearing assets less attractive.
A dovish tone: If the minutes show a more dovish view or a signal of a delay in rate hike due to economic concerns or inflationary pressures, gold prices may increase sharply. In this case, investors can turn to gold as a hedge against inflation or a safe-haven asset.
February 20, 2025: Number of unemployment benefit applications in the US
Daily unemployment claims data is one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The forecast for unemployment claims in the week ending February 15 is 214,000, up slightly from 213,000 last week. This index reflects the state of the labor market and the health of the economy.
Potential impact on gold prices:
Decreased claims: If the number of unemployment claims decreases, it would suggest a stable labor market and a stronger US economy. As unemployment eases, the Fed may not need to cut interest rates or ease monetary policy. This could strengthen the US dollar and send gold prices down.
Increased applications: If the number of unemployment claims increases, it could show that the labor market is weakening. At that time, the FED may have to reconsider continuing to raise interest rates. If the economy shows signs of weakening, many people will expect the FED to cut interest rates or take support measures, which could help gold prices increase.
February 21, 2025: Preliminary manufacturing PMI
The preliminary manufacturing PMI helps predict the manufacturing situation and health of the economy. If the PMI is high, it shows that the manufacturing industry is developing well. Conversely, if the PMI is low, it could be a sign that the economy is slowing. The February preliminary manufacturing PMI forecast was 51.2, down from 52.4 in the previous month.
Potential impact on gold prices:
PMI is higher than expected: If the PMI is higher than expected, the market can be confident in the recovery of the manufacturing industry. This could strengthen the US dollar and increase bond yields, thereby putting pressure on gold prices to fall.
lower PMI than forecast: If the PMI falls, showing an economic slowdown, investors may turn to gold as a safe haven. This could raise concerns about the global economy, boost gold demand and push gold prices higher.
