World gold price movements last week
Gold prices have tried to hold on "while there's water to drink" around the support level of 5,000 USD/ounce for most of this week. However, a series of pessimistic statements from central banks and the less positive prospect of Iran's war have created too much pressure, making the precious metal unable to hold on. When the "dust" subsided, gold lost more than 10% of its value.
Spot gold prices opened the week at 5,023.53 USD/ounce. In the first three days, the market was quite "peaceful", trading was relatively stable. From Sunday evening, throughout Monday and Tuesday - when gold set a weekly peak above 5,040 USD, to the Asian session and most of the European session on Wednesday, gold prices fluctuated in the range of 5,040 - 4,975 USD/ounce, most of the time only fluctuating in the range of about 30 USD.
However, by 6:30 am on Wednesday, the market suddenly fluctuated sharply when spot gold prices broke the important support level of 4,970 USD/ounce, leading to a 120 USD plunge in just over 2 hours. The price only found a turning point when it touched the level of 4,860 USD/ounce.
After that, the market "digests" the production price index (PPI) data higher than expected, while waiting for the main event: the interest rate decision and the updated economic forecast of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced at 2 pm.
The Fed's maintenance of interest rates is not surprising and gold prices have hardly reacted strongly. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference pushed gold prices deeply down, to near the 4,800 USD/ounce mark when the US stock market closed.
Then, in the Asian session, the second sell-off wave took place, causing gold to record the strongest drop since the decline in early February: from 4,833 USD/ounce at 2:00 AM on Thursday to 4,538 USD/ounce just half an hour before the North American stock market opened.
Gold prices then rebounded quite strongly to $4,630 in 30 minutes. After forming a short-term support zone around $4,575, the precious metal entered its only upward trend of the week on Thursday, reaching a peak of $4,733/ounce at 11:15 PM Eastern time.
However, the second attempt to increase to the 4,730 USD zone was unsuccessful. Gold prices continued to lose the rest of the week's decline, from 4,722 USD at 4:15 am plunging below 4,500 USD at 3:00 PM, setting a weekly bottom at 4,477.54 USD. At the end of the week, gold prices "shattered" and closed right below the threshold of 4,500 USD/ounce.
Gold price forecast for next week
The latest weekly gold survey with Wall Street experts shows that most of the forecasts are negative for the short-term outlook of gold prices, while small investors (Main Street) also shifted to a pessimistic trend after another week of less positive trading.
This week, 18 analysts participated in a Kitco News survey. Wall Street sentiment became the most negative since the beginning of the year, after gold prices continuously broke through many important support levels.
Only 3 experts, equivalent to 17%, predict that gold prices will increase next week. Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority of 12 people, accounting for 67%, believe that prices will continue to fall. The remaining three analysts (17%) assess short-term risks in a balanced state.
Meanwhile, Kitco's online poll recorded 309 participation votes. The psychology of individual investors has shifted to a clear downward trend for the first time in many months, in the context of continuously falling gold prices.
There are 147 investors, equivalent to 47%, expecting gold prices to increase next week; 104 people (34%) forecast prices to continue to fall. The remaining 58 investors, accounting for 19%, believe that prices will remain flat in the near future.
Economic data to be tracked next week
After this week with a lot of decisions from the central bank and a series of important economic data, the economic news calendar for next week becomes "light", almost able to be condensed into a small note.
In the context of the absence of leading factors, traders are likely to focus on the developments of the Iran war and the technical thresholds of the market.
The only notable events are the preliminary S&P March PMI index report of the US released on Tuesday morning, along with the weekly unemployment claims report released on Thursday.
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