Positive prospects in the short term
"Gold prices will increase" - Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com commented.
Why not? Because all factors are in favor of gold. The market is being deliberately manipulated, while geopolitical tensions continue to escalate. In this context, what other choice do long-term investors have besides gold?" - Darin Newsom said.
Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, remains bullish on gold next week but recommends caution: It seems that the recent record high is not the last peak. The price approaching the $3,000/ounce mark will support the increase, but at the same time increase the risk of correction" - he commented.
Bob Haberkorn - senior commodity broker at RJO Futures, said that although the US retail sales report released last Friday morning caused gold prices to fall, in fact gold has weakened before due to geopolitical factors.
Even before the release of US retail sales data, information about the likelihood of a peace deal in Ukraine had weakened gold since last night. After that, as retail sales fell sharply, the market became more confident that the Fed would not cut interest rates in March, leading to a slight adjustment.
However, it is worth noting that from what I hear and observe in the market, investors are still waiting patiently to buy. There was almost no selling pressure. I don't even see where traders sell them," he said.
Sharing the same view, Kitco senior analyst - Jim Wyckoff, predicted that gold prices will continue to increase in the short term. Gold prices are rising due to safe-haven demand and positive technical signals, he said.
As one of the few experts who are neutral on gold this week, Colin Cieszynski - market strategist at SIA Wealth Management said: "Gold has increased strongly in recent times, and technically, it may need a correction to consolidate the increase. In addition, there will be a long holiday next week, so the market will trade less.
Experts predict a new peak
Bob Haberkorn also believes that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia would be good news, but that is not the main factor dominating the gold market. I think what the market is really interested in right now is global monetary policy and gold being moved from London and Europe to the US, to Comex warehouses. This has attracted much attention and demand for gold, so prices could exceed $3,000/ounce, he said.
Haberkorn said that gold flow into the US, along with the price difference that drives this trend, is causing some investors to put their confidence further beyond the $3,000/ounce mark.
Im hearing a lot of predictions for $4,000 an ounce in the future. People don't mention it as much as other developments, but with the rate of golden return we are witnessing, this scenario is entirely possible," he said.
coming month will be an exciting time for gold, Haberkorn added. Lets see how far and how fast the price can increase. With the current situation, I think gold will reach $3,000/ounce. That could happen in the first or second quarter of 2025. A lot of people are excited about gold, and Friday's correction is an opportunity to buy gold.
Economic calendar affecting gold prices this week
After a volatile week with a series of economic data and news strongly impacting the market, next week is expected to be less stressful when the US market closes on Monday on the occasion of President's Day. Some data that may affect gold prices this week include:
Tuesday: Empire State Production Index (economic index measuring the business conditions of the manufacturing sector in New York state, USA). This index is published monthly by the US Federal Reserve (FED) New York branch, based on a survey of manufacturers in the region.
Wednesday: US housing data (New builds and Construction Permits), FED meeting minutes.
Thursday: USWeeks Unemployment Insurance Application, FED Philadelphia Production Survey.
Friday: S&P Flash PMI, Current home sales in the US
