Gold prices are still the "anchor" of the new commodity cycle and the long-term upward trend of this precious metal has not been broken despite strong fluctuations in recent times, according to Doug Moglia - Macro and Market Strategist at Rockefeller Global Investment Management.
In the latest report, Mr. Moglia said that commodities are regaining the role of portfolio diversification after many years of being underestimated, as structural demand increases while supply in many sectors is still tightened by years of lack of investment.
According to him, the wave of electrification, AI infrastructure investment, the trend of bringing production back to the country and the need to ensure energy security are becoming a major driving force of the commodity market. In which, precious metals continue to lead the upward momentum.
Gold prices have increased by 92%, while silver has more than doubled since the beginning of 2025," Mr. Moglia said.
Rockefeller believes that gold buying demand from central banks remains the core driving force of the market, especially after the West imposed sanctions on Russia's foreign exchange reserves since 2022.
Global central banks realize that reserves held in the USD and euro systems may face political and legal risks. That changes their perception of financial sovereignty," Mr. Moglia said.
According to him, gold - an asset that does not carry partner risk and does not depend on any issuing organization - has become the biggest beneficiary.
In the period 2022-2024, the net gold purchase volume of central banks continuously exceeded 1,000 tons per year, equivalent to about 20-25% of global gold mining output.
Rockefeller believes that 2025 marks a new turning point for the gold market as Western financial investment capital begins to participate more strongly through ETFs and individual investors.
However, Mr. Moglia warned that the strong participation of speculative cash flow also makes short-term volatility greater.
The more cash flow trades according to the momentum participating, the higher the possibility of strong correction waves appearing," he said.
However, Rockefeller believes that many long-term factors continue to support gold, including increased fiscal risk, concerns about the independence of the Fed and prolonged geopolitical instability.
The current gold price rise market is still quite young compared to major uptrend cycles in history that usually last for nearly a decade," Mr. Moglia said.
Rockefeller forecasts that gold could exceed $5,500/ounce by 2027 and reach $8,000/ounce before 2030.
For silver, Rockefeller assessed that this metal still benefits from the general upward trend of the precious metal group thanks to demand from green energy, electric vehicles, solar panels and AI infrastructure.
However, Mr. Moglia believes that silver is currently more affected by cash flow and market sentiment, causing stronger fluctuations than gold.
Rockefeller also assessed that gold and silver mining stocks could be an attractive option in the coming period thanks to their ability to generate high cash flow and directly benefit from rising precious metal prices.
Gold is still a strategic asset in the long-term investment portfolio," Mr. Moglia emphasized.
