Gold prices may increase strongly

Nicky Shiels - Head of Metals Research and Strategy at PAMP Agency has just raised the precious metal forecast to the end of the year. She said traditional factors, including the upcoming rate cut, will support the price increase.

In the update, Shiels forecasts gold prices to average around $3,200/ounce this year, up 8% from the initial forecast, and expects prices to peak at $3,600/ounce by the end of the year.

She commented: "We are entering a new era of fiscal dominance (record public debt and increased borrowing costs put pressure on central banks, not only the US Federal Reserve FED).

The US, Europe and China are all stimulating tai chinh, with a budget deficit of 6% becoming the new standard. The market will shift, focusing back on fundamental factors such as macroeconomic data and the Fed's policies, instead of being dominated by short-term news on tariffs.

She said that the Fed's interest rate cut will continue to weaken the USD, while geopolitical instability will also promote the trend of global de-dollarization: "In my opinion, the US no longer has the ability and will to maintain the previous monopoly world order. The world is moving from an unbalanced united globe to a more balanced multipolar one.

Shiels stressed that the US dollar's dominance in the global financial market is also under threat, as US President Donald Trump increasingly puts pressure on the Fed, undermining the central bank's political independence.

The view that the US is becoming an emerging market type with a turkey-style monetary policy, a Chinese-style industrial policy and growing doubts about the independence of the Federal Statistical System ( Regarding the leader of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics), puts gold in a defensive barrier position - Shiels analyzed.

Although he predicts gold prices will continue to rise in the second half of the year, Shiels believes that other precious metals are the names with more potential. She has raised her forecast for silver, platinum and palladium.

For silver, she forecasts the average price this year to be $38/ounce, up 10% from the initial estimate, although she still maintains the resistance level of $42/ounce.

The forecasts after Liberation Day were too optimistic before, when the US announced a new, strong package on April 2, 2025. The negative impact of the risk of a trade war on economic growth and industrial demand has been inflated. Industry demand is still actually tight, and the reinflationary trading trend will push silver ahead in the second half of 2025.

For platinum, Shiels has raised its annual average forecast to $1,350 an ounce, up 38% from before, saying prices could test the resistance level of $1,600 an ounce.

The platinum price increase (compared to the baseline scenario in the January 2025 Annual Report) occurred earlier than expected. We have been too pessimistic when we thought that PGM demand (platinum, palladium, rhodium) will be affected by car tariffs and trade wars.

However, in reality, strategic hoarding of important metals has helped prices remain high. The deep and prolonged backwardation in both the platinum and powder markets shows a scarce supply, forcing prices to increase.

For palladium, Shiels forecasts an average price of about 1,140 USD/ounce this year, and can test the resistance level of 1,350 USD/ounce.