David Morrison - senior market analyst at Trade Nation - expressed optimism about gold in the short term. The outlook for gold is currently quite uncertain. It seems that the MacD (a daily indicator of price movement and trend) needs to decrease to lower levels to attract new buying power.
Although the stock market was sold off due to the group of technology stocks, there is still no sign that investors are looking for gold as a replacement safe-haven asset," he said.
Sean Lusk, co-head of commercial defense at Walsh Trading, said the market will continue to move sideways or down slightly for a short time: "Then, the market will consider whether December will bring a "H Christmas boost"?
I don't know what the Fed will say in December without clear enough data. The minutes of the recent meeting show that if there is no data, it would be unwise to switch to a softer stance until there is convincing evidence."
Similarly, Alex Kuptsikevich - senior market analyst at FxPro - predicted that gold prices will decrease this week. He said he is monitoring the 50-day moving average to see if a breach occurs.
"Gold has maintained a stable price despite the stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors expect gold prices to increase or even push prices up in a short time, thanks to positive signals from physical gold demand. However, as the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in December fell to 32%, investor confidence in the group weakened and they no longer have enough strength to continue supporting gold prices," said Alex Kuptsikevich.
Kuptsikevich cited Goldman Sachs' estimate that central banks bought 64 tonnes of gold in September, three times as much as in August. TD Securities has seen signs of increased demand from large investors for ETFs, and UBS has raised its 2026 forecast by $300 to $4,500/ounce. About 26% of Bank of America survey respondents believe that gold will outperform commodities and currencies next year, he said.
We still believe that the sharp decline a month ago has ended golds three-year rally. However, gold has held prices quite well in recent weeks, ignoring the stronger USD and the progress of the peace plan for Ukraine. In the past, these factors have clearly affected traders and pulled prices down. But now buyers are holding gold on the trend line, which is the 50-day average. If prices break below this level, the trading trend may reverse, he said.
On the other hand, Rich Checkan - Chairman and COO of Asset Strategies International - said that gold prices will increase this week: "Due to unchanged fundamentals and no decrease in central bank purchases, the recent correction and sideways movement of gold has been pushed too far".
Checkan added that the US market will trade sparingly this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Shit markets often cause sideways fluctuations... and I expect investors to want to hold gold rather than stand outside. Expect prices to increase, he said.
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, told Kitco News that the market is waiting for the Federal Reserve to give a direction.
I think it is mostly about interest rates. Everyone is waiting to see what the Fed will do in December and they are starting to review the minutes as well as the discussions from the previous meeting. Every time an official speaks, we see that as something that causes the market to shift. I think the interest rate story is still the focus of everyone's interest, he said.
Grady remains confident in gold, even after a recent strong rally and correction. When looking at the S&P, this index has increased by 12% since the beginning of the year, while gold has increased by 50% and gold stocks have increased by 125%... I think this increase is still there. I think gold prices will be even higher next year. Currently, the market is adjusting; as we often say, you have to eat vegetables first and the market is at that stage.
I think the market has a floor. If prices fall, central banks will buy, that story remains unchanged. They will not escape their gold positions. Central banks are not selling gold. I think gold still has room to increase. I think gold is receiving solid support."
