Global gold supply is forecast to continue to grow in 2026 thanks to improved mining output and recycling activities. Meanwhile, gold demand may slightly decrease due to jewelry demand and central bank buying activity cooling down. However, investment demand for physical gold in the form of gold bars and gold coins is expected to increase sharply, for the first time exceeding jewelry demand to become the largest component of the global gold market.
This is the assessment made by Metals Focus in the annual Gold Focus 2026 report just released.
According to Metals Focus, the average gold price in 2026 is forecast to reach about $4,920/ounce, up 43% compared to the previous year and setting a new record high.
Mr. Matthew Piggott – Director of Gold and Silver Research at Metals Focus said that gold prices increased by 44% in 2025, marking the strongest increase since 1980.
Although the net gold purchase volume of central banks decreased by about 20% compared to the previous year after three consecutive years of maintaining very high levels, demand from this sector is still significantly higher than the period before 2022.
In addition, the trend of shifting from jewelry to gold bars and gold coins continues to be clear in many large markets.
For the first time in our dataset, physical gold investment demand is forecast to exceed jewelry demand to become the largest component of total gold demand," Mr. Piggott said.
According to Metals Focus, the correction of gold prices after hitting a historical peak at the beginning of the year has made a part of investors more cautious. However, the fundamental factors supporting the gold market have not changed significantly.
Experts believe that the uncertainties of the global economy, prolonged inflationary pressure, increased public debt in many major economies, and the need to diversify investment portfolios continue to strengthen the role of gold as a long-term value-preserving asset.
We expect gold prices to continue to set new highs in the near future," Mr. Piggott said.
Regarding supply, global gold mining output in 2025 reached a record level of 3,817 tons, an increase of 2% compared to the previous year thanks to new mining projects coming into operation, expanding mining capacity and output from small-scale mining areas increasing.
In 2026, gold production is forecast to continue to increase by 2.4%, to about 3,907 tons.
Meanwhile, global recycled gold volume in 2025 increased by 2.8%, reaching 1,404 tons - the highest level in 13 years. Metals Focus forecasts that the supply of recycled gold will continue to increase by 5.1% in 2026.
In terms of demand, the net gold purchase volume of central banks decreased by 22% in 2025 to 848 tons, the lowest level in four years. However, Metals Focus believes that demand from the central bank sector will still remain at a high level compared to the average of recent years.
For gold ETF funds, holdings increased by 803 tons in 2025, recording the strongest increase since 2020.
Investment demand for physical gold also increased by 16%, to the highest level in 12 years thanks to the attraction of precious metals in the context of investors seeking risk-weighted assets.
Conversely, jewelry demand continues to be under pressure from high prices. Global gold jewelry production decreased by 19% in 2025 to 1,646 tons, the lowest level in 5 years.
Metals Focus forecasts this trend will continue in 2026 as jewelry demand decreases by about 11%, while demand for gold bars and gold coins increases by 15%, to the highest level since 2013.
Notably, China is forecast to continue to be the main growth driver of global physical gold investment demand.
In addition, gold demand in the electronics sector is almost flat in 2025 as growth from new technology applications compensates for the weakening of the consumer electronics market. Meanwhile, gold demand in other industrial sectors continues to decrease.
Metals Focus forecasts that total global gold demand will decrease by about 2% in 2026 due to weakening jewelry demand and central bank buying activity. However, this decrease will be partially offset by continued strong increase in physical gold investment demand.
Although the gold market has undergone a period of correction after hitting a historical peak, Metals Focus still maintains a positive outlook for the long-term outlook of the precious metal.
According to this organization, the fundamental factors that once supported gold prices to increase sharply in recent years still continue to exist and will be an important driving force for the market in the coming time.
We believe that the long-term upward trend of gold will still be maintained. Fundamental drivers supporting the market continue to play a fundamental role in future gold price prospects," Metals Focus emphasized.
