Regarding the time and intensity of storm No. 5 Kajiki, Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has had detailed analysis as of 9:00 a.m. this morning, August 25.
Sir, how has storm No. 5 Kajiki affected it and how is the current status of the storm?
- This morning, August 25, in Vietnam, at Bach Long Vi station (Hai Phong), there were strong winds of level 7, gusting to level 9; Co To station (Quang Ninh) had strong winds of level 6, gusting to level 9, Bai Chay station (Quang Ninh) had strong winds of level 6, gusting to level 8; Hon Ngu station (Nghe An) had strong winds of level 7, gusting to level 9; Con Co station (Quang Tri) had strong winds of level 6, gusting to level 8; ... In Ha Tinh - Quang Tri provinces, there was moderate rain, heavy rain, some places had very heavy rain over 150mm.
From now until the afternoon when the storm moves into the Ha Tinh - Thanh Hoa sea area, the storm will maintain an intensity of level 14, gusting to level 15-16. When approaching the Ha Tinh - Nghe An coast, the intensity may decrease to level 13.
On land, the North of Thanh Hoa has strong winds of level 8-9, gusting to level 10-11; the South of Thanh Hoa - North of Ha Tinh has strong winds of 10-11, near the storm center level 12-14, gusting to level 15-16. The strong wind radius above level 12 around the center of the storm is about 50km.
The South Ha Tinh, Quang Tri, coastal areas of the provinces from Quang Ninh to Ninh Binh will have strong winds of level 6-8, gusting to level 9-10.
Deep inland in the South Thanh Hoa - Ha Tinh area, about 50-70km from the coast, strong winds of level 8-9, gusting to level 11-12; later inland, in the part bordering Laos, strong winds of level 6-7, gusting to level 7-8.
When is the forecast for the time when the storm will have the strongest impact on both strong winds and heavy rain, sir?
- Strong winds on the mainland of the provinces from Thanh Hoa - Quang Tri appeared from the morning of August 25. The strongest wind is forecast to be from 12 noon to around 6pm.
From the morning of August 25 to the end of August 26, in the midlands and deltas of the North, the Lao Cai area and from Thanh Hoa to Nghe An, there will be widespread heavy rain with common rainfall of 100-150mm, locally over 250mm; Thanh Hoa to North Quang Tri will have heavy to very heavy rain with common rainfall of 200-400mm, locally over 600mm. Warning of the risk of heavy rain with rainfall greater than 200mm within 3 hours.
Sir, the forecast for the intensity of storm No. 5 Kajiki is about how much when it makes landfall and what do the meteorological agencies of Vietnam and the region think?
- There are many bases to predict the intensity of storm No. 5 will be strong as the storm approaches land.
Factors affecting the storm's intensity are storm No. 5 moving in the central sea with water surface temperatures up to 30 degrees Celsius; at the same time, being supplemented with energy from the southwest monsoon from Ben Giai Bay and the easterly wind of the subtropical high pressure tongue, the possibility of the storm maintaining strong intensity is very high.
The shearage of this storm is 2.5 m/s in the South Gulf of Tonkin, so it is favorable for the storm to maintain its intensity when approaching the shore.
The circulation of storm No. 5 is less affected by friction with the terrain of Hainan Island, so the structure is not broken. Forecasts from weather models calculated by both Vietnam and the international community predict that the storm will continue to maintain strong intensity as it approaches the shore.
When moving in the coastal area, the friction increases, the influence of the northwest part of the subtropical high pressure tongue (the decisive shape of the path of storm No. 5) will cause the storm to lose symmetry and the axis will lean more north, so the intensity will decrease.
Currently, there is a high consensus among international forecasters, the Japan Meteorological Agency believes the intensity when making landfall is about level 13-14, Beijing (China) believes similarly; Hong Kong (China) forecasts the intensity when making landfall at level 14.
Sincerely thank you!
