Global aviation industry faces challenges
Mr. Le Hong Ha - General Director of Vietnam Airlines - said that the airline is having to temporarily suspend many A321NEO aircraft on the ground due to the impact of the engine recall by Pratt & Whitney manufacturer.
Mr. Ha said that the process of putting the engine into maintenance took up to 300 days, nearly three times longer than before. Therefore, the situation of aircraft shortage will continue.
Vietnam Airlines said that its narrow-body fleet currently has 66 aircraft, including three types: A321Ceo, A321Neo and A320Neo. This is the main fleet, bringing in the largest aviation revenue.
However, many aircraft are preparing to sell out. Specifically, 33 A321Ceo aircraft will respectively expire in the period of 2023 - 2031.
Meanwhile, the rental of aircraft (33 units) is also on the brink of expiration. There are 10 A321 aircraft with lease terms from 2029 - 2031; 20 A321Neo aircraft with lease terms from 2033 - 2034; three A320Neo aircraft with lease terms from 2033 - 2036;
While many aircraft are about to expire with depreciation and lease expiration, market demand is still very high. It is expected that by 2030 and 2035, the total demand for Vietnam Airlines' fleet will be 137 and 169 aircraft, respectively. By 2040, the airline's fleet will reach more than 200 aircraft.
The shortage of aircraft does not only come from the domestic market but also from the general situation of the international community. Mr. Dave Schulte, Executive Director of Boeing Commercial Aircraft Marketing for Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and the ocean, said that in recent years, the global aviation industry has faced many challenges.
Although global GDP has now exceeded pre-pandemic levels and continues to grow compared to 2019, the supply of aircraft and seats for the market is still in shortage. According to Boeing's estimate, there have been about 3,000 aircraft that have not been delivered in the past few years.
This leads to about 3% to 3.5% of the global fleet having to stop operations each year. However, due to a lack of supply, the rate of aircraft that have stopped operating in recent years has decreased by half.
As a result, the average age of the air force is increasing. One-way passenger airliners have increased by an average age of more than a year. Meanwhile, wide-body passenger aircraft and wide-body cargo aircraft also recorded an increase of more than a year and a half and nearly a year, respectively.
In Southeast Asia, there are currently more than 500 aircraft approaching the age of 25, the age at which these aircraft should have been stopped operating. At the same time, the number of aircraft aged 20 to 23 is also increasing significantly.
Annual growth in passenger demand will exceed 8%
To overcome the shortage of aircraft, Mr. Dave Schulte said that airlines need to proactively make decisions on fleets in the context that new aircraft have not been delivered until the 2030s.
Previously, airlines often planned their fleets for the 5-7 year period. But now, he believes the planning period should be extended to 10 or even 15 years in the future.
In the next few years, the market will record growth in the number of new, used and even two-time.
Commenting on the Vietnamese aviation market, Mr. Dave Schulte said that he believes that in the next 5 years, the Vietnamese aviation industry will witness strong growth. It is forecasted that the annual growth rate of passenger demand will exceed 8%.
Vietnam Airlines said that in the context of reduced aircraft resources, the airline has implemented solutions to adjust production and business activities, change flight routes, exploitation and operation conditions, and aircraft turnover times at airports, so it has increased aircraft usage productivity while total flight hours are similar but still ensure flight safety.
In the long term, Vietnam Airlines promotes investment in 50 narrow-body aircraft, 100% newly purchased from the aircraft manufacturer. The total investment is nearly 3.7 billion USD. Vietnam Airlines said it will make efforts to deliver the aircraft early in the period from 2028 to 2031.
