Capital has been allocated, volume still has to run
In 2026, the scale of public investment capital allocated is very large. According to the Ministry of Finance, the total capital allocated by the National Assembly and the Prime Minister to ministries, central agencies and localities reached more than 1,014 million billion VND.
By the end of July, if the balanced capital portion of the local budget assigned increased, about 991.873 billion VND has been allocated in detail, equivalent to 97.8% of the capital plan assigned by the Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the disbursed capital from the beginning of the year to July 31 reached 425. 312 billion VND, equal to 41.9% of the plan.
This result is still about 3.6 percentage points more positive than the same period in 2025 and higher than 86,800 billion VND in absolute value. However, there are still 24 ministries, central agencies and 11 localities with disbursement rates below the general average.
Sharing with reporters, MSc Nguyen Thi Thu Trang - Lecturer at the Institute of Banking Science Research, Banking Academy - analyzed that the gap between the amount of capital allocated and the actual disbursed amount shows that the current bottleneck is not mainly in the lack of financial resources.
The biggest bottleneck of public investment today is not mainly in the lack of capital, but in the capacity to absorb and implement capital - that is, the ability to convert budget sources that have been allocated into actual construction volume, jobs and infrastructure assets" - Ms. Trang assessed.
According to her, when new money is in the plan but has not been converted into construction volume, the impact on total demand, jobs and the spillover effect of public investment has not been fully promoted.
The four groups of bottlenecks mentioned by experts include site clearance and resettlement; investment procedures and project adjustment; supply, price and material exploitation procedures; and finally, the management capacity and construction organization of the investor, project management board and contractor.
The July macroeconomic report released by DSC Securities on August 6 also considers accelerating public investment disbursement as one of the important drivers for the economy in the last months of the year. According to DSC, production continues to recover, FDI remains positive, consumption improves; in that context, public investment is expected to further support growth.
MBS in its strategic report on August 10 also recorded that public investment disbursement in 7 months reached 425.300 billion VND, equivalent to 41.9% of the plan and significantly higher than the same period last year. However, this unit still noted the institutional barriers and the ability to mobilize and use resources effectively in the high growth period.
We should not just run after the disbursement rate
With the large amount of capital remaining in the last months of the year, disbursement pressure will continue to increase. According to Ms. Trang, if problems with land, materials and procedures have not been resolved, the addition of additional capital may not create a corresponding amount of actual work. Conversely, the pressure to run progress may rush towards the end of the year.
The ultimate goal is not to disburse quickly at all costs, but to put capital into projects that can quickly create actual volume, improve infrastructure capacity and create a spillover effect to private investment" - Ms. Trang said.
Experts believe that one direction to consider is to transfer capital earlier based on actual progress. Projects that are delayed and prolonged due to subjective reasons, unable to use all capital, should be reviewed to transfer resources to projects that have completed procedures, have land and are capable of implementation.
The Ministry of Finance also said that among the capital that has not been allocated in detail currently, a new part was allocated to be supplemented in July-July and needs more time to complete procedures; at the same time, a proposal has appeared to adjust capital reduction in places where there is no longer demand to transfer to ministries, branches, and localities that can use it.
Another point, according to Ms. Trang, is that the assessment of public investment efficiency should not only stop at the disbursement rate. In addition to the spent money, it is necessary to look at the completed volume, construction progress and the time when infrastructure assets are actually put into use.
Because with the same disbursement rate, the economic impact will be different if the capital is put into a project that is likely to be completed quickly, connect infrastructure and lead to private investment compared to projects that continue to be behind schedule.
With a capital scale of more than 1 million billion VND, the problem of public investment in the last months of the year is therefore no longer mainly to find more money, but to shorten the gap from the time the capital is allocated to when there is actually more construction volume outside the construction site.
