After a period of strong growth, the apartment market is showing notable developments. In the secondary market, transfer prices in many projects have tended to adjust compared to the previous period, in the context of more cautious buyers and slower liquidity.
Meanwhile, in the primary market, the price level remains high. As new supply continues to be supplemented, competitive pressure between projects increases, putting investors before the problem of rebalancing selling prices, increasing discounts and support policies to improve liquidity.
Talking about this development, Mr. Nguyen Anh Que, Member of the Executive Committee of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, General Director of G6 Investment and Development Group JSC (G6 Group) said that it is necessary to look at the gap between the increase in apartment selling prices and input costs in recent years.
According to Mr. Que, if only considering construction costs, a high-end apartment project currently costs about 25-30 million VND/m2. For commercial housing in the mid-range segment, this level is about 20 million VND/m2, while social housing is about 15-17 million VND/m2.
Meanwhile, apartment selling prices have increased significantly faster. "Compared to 2022, by 2026, selling prices in some segments have increased 2-3 times, while construction costs have only increased by about 30%" - Mr. Que said.
According to him, this gap stems from many factors, including the expected profit level of investors and land use fees.
The fact that land use fees have not been determined also creates risks for some projects. There are cases where projects have been built up to high floors, even topped up, but land use fees have not been determined, making it impossible for investors to fully calculate input costs.
In the context of differentiated purchasing power, Mr. Nguyen Anh Que believes that selling prices are becoming an important factor for the absorption capacity of projects.
With the current liquidity of apartments, in my opinion, the most important solution is still to adjust selling prices" - Mr. Que assessed.
According to the G6 Chairman, if investors reduce profit expectations and put products on the market at more affordable prices, absorption capacity can be improved. Conversely, continuing to keep prices high will put greater competitive pressure on projects as the supply of new commercial housing and social housing continues to increase.
For projects facing liquidity difficulties, Mr. Que believes that an adjustment of about 20-30% can help improve purchasing power.
Investors who launch goods at this time at reasonable prices are the investors with advantages. If prices remain high, in the future they will have to compete with other commercial housing projects and the supply of social housing" - Mr. Que said.
According to him, instead of continuing to push prices up, businesses need to recalculate selling prices based on input costs and expected profit levels. When supply increases, a price suitable for the affordability of buyers will become an important factor for the project's liquidity.
Forecasting the price trend of apartments in the coming time, Mr. Nguyen Anh Que said that apartments in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City may be under strong adjustment pressure in the coming years, when supply is supplemented and buyers have more choices.
With more abundant expected supply, I believe that in the 2028-2030 period, apartment prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City may enter a period of strong adjustment, with a decrease of about 40%" - Mr. Que predicted.
