Supply and primary consumption in the first quarter of 2025 decreased
After 8 quarters continuously grew, the Hanoi primary apartment market officially entered the adjustment phase in the first quarter of 2025. According to data from the Market Research Center and understanding the One Mount Group customers, the primary supply reached only about 4,000 units and the consumption at 3,000, down 60 - 70% compared to 11,000 - 12,000 units of the fourth quarter of IV/2024. This is the first quarter of the market to record a sharp decline in both supply and consumption since the first quarter of 2023.
Mr. Tran Minh Tien, Director of the One Mount Group Market Research & Customer Insight Center, explained two main reasons for the market's "acceleration".
Accordingly, the first quarter of the year often coincides with the time of the Lunar New Year - which is considered a "rest" period according to the practices of the real estate market. Therefore, many projects tend to reverse the sale schedule to the next quarter. Despite gathering booking from the end of 2024, most investors still choose to observe market movements and wait for the right time to officially produce goods. The "stubborn" in the first quarter of the year is not a rare thing, but a familiar strategy to avoid liquidity risks during the temporary demand.
In addition, the psychology of buyers is clearly shifting. According to a survey by the One Mount Group Center for Market Research and Customer Insight in the group of customers who have not traded real estate in the fourth quarter of 2024, the main reason is still "not having enough financial potential". In addition, the high selling price compared to average affordability is also a factor affecting many people's buying decisions.
However, Mr. Tran Minh Tien said that instead of being a barrier, this is a driving force that motivates buyers to expand their search reach to neighboring areas or further away, where prices are more suitable but still ensure quality of life and infrastructure connection.
The trend of moving to the East
Faced with the scarcity of supply in the inner city and large urban areas near the center of Hanoi, along with high selling prices, the market is clearly recording the trend of shifting demand to satellite areas. Notable among them is Van Giang (Hung Yen), an area located close to the East of Hanoi, which benefits greatly from inter-regional transport infrastructure and the emergence of many large urban areas of hundreds of hectares.
According to forecasts from the Market Research & Knowledgeable Center for Customer One Mount Group, the East will replace the Western area leading the supply of Hanoi apartment in the period 2025 - 2026, with Van Giang accounting for 29% of the total market supply. The price here is about 61 million VND/m2 (excluding VAT and maintenance funding) - significantly lower than the common level in Hanoi's inner city.
Expert Tran Minh Tien commented: "The rapid increase in supply and consumption in neighboring areas shows a clear shift in consumer behavior from focusing on the inner city to accepting "favorite", as long as the quality of life, utilities and reasonable prices are guaranteed".
