The real estate market is entering a new phase after a hot growth cycle, increased capital cost pressure and increasingly clear requirements for operational restructuring for businesses. Capital flows, interest rates and product structure continue to be factors dominating the outlook for 2026.
Analyzing credit capital flows, Dr. Can Van Luc - Chief Economist of BIDV noted that real estate is currently not in the group of priority credit sectors, except for social housing and industrial parks. This means that real estate businesses have to accept higher capital costs compared to the previous period, and it is difficult to expect interest rates to return to low levels like in 2020-2021.
However, bank credit is not the only capital channel. In 2025, FDI capital into real estate reached about 6.3 billion USD, accounting for 20% of total registered FDI capital, with disbursement of nearly 2 billion USD. The real estate corporate bond market also recorded a clear recovery, with a issuance value of about 123,500 billion VND, an increase of 40% compared to 2024. According to Dr. Can Van Luc, these figures show that the market is not short of money, but needs to be reasonably regulated to avoid localized hot growth.
Faced with the new context, Dr. Can Van Luc recommends that real estate businesses need to change their development thinking. Scattered investment, implementing 10-15 projects at the same time while cash flow is limited will pose great risks if the market fluctuates. He believes that businesses need to closely follow policies, proactively forecast interest rates, costs and demand.
Regarding product structure, the expert emphasized that the supply-demand mismatch is still a big problem. The high-end segment needs to be carefully considered, while mid-range housing, social housing and affordable housing are still seriously lacking. He also said that real estate prices have formed a new level in the past 2-3 years and are difficult to fall deeply.
Therefore, according to Dr. Can Van Luc, market regulation needs to be based on three pillars: increasing appropriate supply, using flexible fiscal policy (tax - fee) and operating monetary policy cautiously.
The biggest challenge today is finding a balanced point: controlling risks but not causing the market to decline excessively, because real estate is still an important pillar of the economy," Dr. Can Van Luc emphasized.
From a market perspective, according to the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), in 2026, investors are forced to switch to selective thinking, prioritizing products with real usable value, exploitation capacity, liquidity and good risk management. Investors who still rely on high leverage, unverified information and "quick-earning" expectations are likely to be eliminated from the game when the market moves to a stage of real competition.
Looking at the long term, VARS believes that real estate prices are unlikely to fall deeply because real housing demand is still maintained at a high level, the economy continues to grow and infrastructure investment is constantly expanding, thereby increasing asset value and stimulating investment demand.
However, the market in 2026 is likely to no longer have widespread hot growth "waves". Instead, there will be a purification phase, where only businesses with sufficient financial capacity, good cost control and long-term vision can stand firm and benefit.
In general, real estate in 2026 is no longer a game of short-term expectations, but a test of resilience, financial discipline and the real ability to survive of both businesses and investors," VARS emphasized.
