From the "bottleneck" of the trapped group
In the meeting on March 24, the Standing Committee of the Government agreed on the policy of amending and supplementing Decree No. 100/2024/ND-CP. The focus of this change is to increase the average income level to consider social housing (NƠXH) buyers. This is considered a timely response to the fact that house prices in major cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have grown rapidly, far exceeding the income growth rate of workers.
In fact, the market is experiencing a "quiet period" of middle-income groups. They are people with incomes higher than the poverty line but do not have enough potential to access commercial housing. The story of Mr. Nguyen Van Nam's family (32 years old, renting a room in Cau Giay ward, Hanoi) is a typical example.
The total income of the couple is about 42 million VND/month. With nearly 900 million VND of capital accumulated, Mr. Nam once confidently sought to buy a commercial apartment. However, a basic 2-bedroom apartment currently also ranges from 5 - 6 billion VND. If borrowing about 3 billion VND from the bank, his family will have to pay both principal and interest of more than 20 million VND per month, bearing the loan interest is too risky. Therefore, buying a commercial house is not enough for him, and buying social housing is entangled in regulations on the old income threshold.
Consensus from experts
From a professional perspective, Dr. Chau Dinh Linh - Lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City University of Banking, expressed his support: "Looking at the supply-demand aspect, the Government is making efforts in the story of having 1 million social housing apartments. Currently, the real estate market is focusing on the mid- and high-end commercial housing segment. As house prices are increasingly high, people who want to have real housing are increasingly unlikely to have the opportunity to own it".
Mr. Linh cited the harsh reality in Hanoi when the average apartment price has reached the threshold of 100 million VND/m2, making even people with incomes of 20-25 million VND "deserved" of commercial housing. Therefore, expanding the beneficiaries of social housing is a direct solution to solve the housing needs for the middle-income group.
Agreeing with this view, Lawyer Nguyen Van Dinh (Hanoi Bar Association) also commented: "Increasing the average income level to enjoy social housing policies as in the draft Decree (increasing to an average income level of 25 million VND/month for individuals, 50 million VND/month for couples) will expand the beneficiaries of social housing support policies, better meeting the housing needs of the people. This is a group of people who do not have access to commercial housing according to the market mechanism, so they need to be supported by the State to ensure their housing needs.
However, Lawyer Nguyen Van Dinh expressed concern about the imbalance between the speed of relaxing the conditions for enjoyment and the market's responsiveness.
Mr. Dinh analyzed that recently, at some social housing projects, when investors open for sale products, the supply situation often does not meet demand. Each sale is only a few hundred apartments, but the number of applications actually submitted is up to tens of thousands.
In that context, the proposal to continue expanding the target group will continue to "relax demand" while the supply in general has not improved. The speed of "relaxing supply" has not kept up with the speed of "relaxing demand", which will make the "competition", "race" to submit applications to buy social housing even more tense and fierce" - Lawyer Dinh shared.
Localities need to be flexible in applying the income ceiling
According to Lawyer Nguyen Van Dinh, excluding two specialized urban areas, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, the income ceiling of 25 million VND/month is classified as "quite high income" in the remaining 32 localities. If applied widely, it may affect the local budget. The reason is that social housing projects are exempt from land use fees; If the number of urban area projects and commercial housing decreases, land use fees and land rents will not be collected, while revenue from land currently still accounts for a high proportion of local budget revenue.
Agreeing with the need for local flexibility, Dr. Chau Dinh Linh contributed his opinion: "When adjusting the income level in the decree, it should only be applied to each region, not across-the-board. For example, in Ho Chi Minh City, I think that level is very normal, but in other provinces, the income level of 25 million VND/person is close to the group with average and high income.
Need an adaptive coefficient instead of "running after" revisions
Besides the budget issue, Dr. Chau Dinh Linh also worried that keeping the income threshold at a fixed number will keep policies always in a state of "chasing" reality.
When the inflation index (CPI) changes, we are forced to amend the Decree to adapt. Instead of passively chasing reality, the fundamental solution is to have an exchange rate that helps the self-adjusting income threshold correspond to CPI fluctuations, thereby ensuring the sustainability and flexibility of policies.
To solve the "buying quota competition" problem that public opinion is concerned about, Dr. Chau Dinh Linh proposed a more structural vision for the market. He believes that the explosion of social housing is not just a story of quantity, but must be a shift in segmentation to be compatible with the diverse income range of people.
In the near future, there may be more social housing segments, designed to suit each income segment of people. This is a necessary signal for social housing to truly become a force that reshapes the market. Instead of just focusing on a common model, diversifying products according to affordability will help supply and demand meet at the most practical touch points.
This view closely complements the proposal of Lawyer Nguyen Van Dinh on separating the group of subjects.
According to lawyer Dinh, for freelancers or unskilled workers with incomes below 10 million VND/month - groups that are almost unable to buy apartments outright - the State needs to focus on the supply of rental housing.
The combination of "segmenting" social housing products by Dr. Linh and "promoting the rental housing fund" by Lawyer Dinh is the key to ensuring: People with good income (near the ceiling of 25 million VND) have houses to buy, while low-income people still have a place to settle down through renting, avoiding the situation where everyone rushes into a "narrow door" as it is now.
According to the Ministry of Construction, as of the end of February 2026, there are 737 social housing projects being implemented nationwide with a scale of 701,347 units, reaching over 70% compared to the project target of 1 million apartments by 2030.
In which, the breakthrough point was determined from 2025: The whole country completed 102,146/100,275 social housing units (reaching 102% of the annual plan).
In 2026, localities are assigned the target of completing about 158,700 social housing units, but with 220 social housing projects with a scale of nearly 250,000 units under construction, the target assigned for 2026 is expected to exceed 35%.
The combination of "loosening demand" (raising the income threshold) and strong "supply increase" is the key to realizing the goal of settling down for millions of workers, creating a solid foundation for the sustainable development of the economy.
