Overview
Leeds United will need to end their poor head-to-head record against Everton if they want to start the Premier League season with a victory at Elland Road.
The Whites have won just one of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Everton, and have failed to win in their last five meetings.
Promoted as Championship champions last season, Leeds have enjoyed an impressive streak of form ( losing only 1/28 matches, winning 19, drawing 8), including 6 consecutive wins. However, in the Premier League, they have not won their last 9 matches (2 draws, 7 losses), conceding 29 goals.
This will be coach Daniel Farke's 50th match in the Premier League. The German has won just six of his previous four of his 49 games. And even if he wins all three points against Everton, he will still be the captain with the lowest winning percentage in the history of the tournament for those who have coached in over 50 matches (12.2%).
On the other side of the front line, David Moyes - who helped Everton escape the risk of relegation last season - has a very good head-to-head record against Leeds: 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss after 10 matches.
In his career, Moyes's winning rate against Leeds (70%) is only lower than that of Sunderland (71%). He also won 4-0 against Farke when he led West Ham to Norwich in 2019-2020 - his biggest away win in the Premier League.
Everton ended the 2024-2025 season with a series of 3 consecutive wins. They will aim for their fourth consecutive win - something that has not been repeated since December 2023 under Sean Dyche, and before that from March 2008 in Moyes's first term. However, The Toffees have lost all 3 of their most recent opening matches, after being unbeaten in 10 consecutive opening rounds before.
Head-to-head record
Everton have an impressive record on their trips to Elland Road, having gone unbeaten in their last five appearances (W2 D3).
This is also their longest unbeaten streak against any of the remaining 19 clubs in the Premier League, equal to the previous 5-match unbeaten streaks against Brighton and Nottingham Forest.
The history of confrontations is also not in Leeds' favor. The Whites have won just one of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Everton (D4 L6). This number is enough to show the responsibility of the opponent in Merseyside.
Predicting the result
The recent head-to-head record does not support Leeds, but the Premier League rookie is highly appreciated according to the Opta supercomputer.
Leeds have a 39.5% chance of winning against Everton, compared to 33.8% for The Toffees, while the possibility of the two teams sharing points is 26.6%.
However, for the whole season, the prospects for Leeds are not very bright. They have a 16.8% chance of finishing bottom of the table and a 16.1% chance of finishing behind, while they have just a 10.8% chance of finishing in a safe 17th place.
For Everton, the picture is much more unpredictable. The Toffees are expected to have a relatively favorable season, but the gap between the midfield and relegation groups is almost insignificant. The highest concentration rate fell to 12th and 13th place, at 7.6%.
Score prediction: Leeds United 1-2 Everton
Expected lineup:
Leeds United: Lucas Perri, Isaac Schmidt, Pascal Struijk, Joe Rodon, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Anton Stach, Ao Tanaka, Sean Longstaff, Daniel James, Joel Piroe, Wilfried Gnonto.
Everton: Jordan Pickford, Seamus Coleman, Michael Keane, James Tarkowski, Vitaliy Mykolenko, James Garner, Idrissa Gueye, Charly Alcaraz, Iliman Ndiaye, Jack Grealish,erno Thi Barry.
The match between Leeds United and Everton takes place at 2:00 am on August 19 (Vietnam time).
