Forecast for the period 2025 - 2030, Ho Chi Minh City will need 1 million new workers

MINH TÂM |

The Ho Chi Minh City labor market, especially in the context of the formation of a "super-urban" after the merger, is facing a long-standing paradox: Both surplus and shortage of human resources.

Ho Chi Minh City's labor force is both in surplus and in shortage

The situation of "excess" unskilled labor and a shortage of high-quality labor is clearly demonstrated through the stories of many job seekers. Mr. Nguyen Minh Tri (residing in Tan Binh ward) has struggled for two months to find a job as a sales staff but has not yet found a suitable place, having to depend on unemployment benefits. "The reason I still haven't found a job is because the salary is not suitable, so I still try to find better opportunities" - Mr. Tri expressed.

According to data from the City Employment Service Center in just the first 10 months of 2025, the whole city recorded more than 140,000 jobseekers and over 250,000 recruitment positions, a significant increase compared to the same period in 2024 (116,899 jobseekers and over 190,087 recruitment positions).

Speaking at the "Connecting human resources with employers" - Job Link 2025 program on November 9, Ms. Luong Thi Toi - Deputy Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Home Affairs - commented that 2025 is a historic turning point. Ho Chi Minh City will merge with Binh Duong and Ba Ria - Vung Tau from July 1, 2025, forming a super urban area with nearly 14 million people, playing the role of leading economic center of Southeast Asia.

With that orientation, the employment trend will focus on the fields of AI, data; automation; renewable energy, logistics and financial management... This will be a big challenge for labor resources in labor-intensive industries due to the concentration of many unskilled workers who have not been recognized for their profession during the training process.

It is forecasted that in the period of 2025 - 2030, Ho Chi Minh City will need from 800,000 to over 1 million new workers, of which 70% are in the high-tech service - industrial sector. The Ho Chi Minh City labor market is facing the problem of both surplus and shortage of labor force. Accordingly, there is an excess of unskilled labor, a shortage of labor with high technical expertise. This is a long-standing problem that requires solutions to promote human resource development.

The public sector is also "thirsty" for information technology

Dr. Pham Anh Thang - Deputy Chief of the Office of the Ministry of Home Affairs, Chief Representative of the Ministry of Home Affairs Agency in Ho Chi Minh City - said that challenges in human resource quality not only exist in the private sector but also in the public sector.

According to Dr. Pham Anh Thang, previously, Vietnam had the old national governance context, but from July 1, 2025, our country has operated a 2-level local government management model, with a total of 3-level management. This greatly affects the employment problem.

Although the rate of workers with certificates is increasing steadily (reaching 29.3% in the third quarter of 2025), our country is facing a sharp decline in the number of people participating in labor every year (a decrease from 1.1 million people to 500,000 people in the third quarter of 2025).

Dr. Thang warned: "If we are not careful, we can easily face the adversity of not being rich, old, and not being proficient in retirement."

In particular, after operating the new government model and implementing digital transformation, the public sector is seriously lacking in skilled human resources, especially those who are good at Information Technology (IT). He emphasized that IT must take the lead to ensure effective governance.

To solve this problem, Dr. Thang proposed a core solution that businesses must directly participate in training, linking and placing orders for training institutions in the right industries they need.

MINH TÂM
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