These are the assessments of Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ngo Tri Long (photo) - an economic expert - in an exchange with Lao Dong Newspaper when assessing Vietnam's economy in 2025.
Sir, if summarizing the Vietnamese economy in 2025 in two words, what will you choose? How do you assess the growth results in 2025 compared to the set goals?
- If I had to summarize Vietnam's economy in 2025 in two words, I would choose "exceeding the threshold". "Exceeding" because the economy not only achieves but exceeds the growth target assigned by the National Assembly. "Exceeding" because this is the year the economy overcomes many external risks to enter a period of higher quality growth.
2025 closed with many positive results when economic growth reached 8.02%. Notably, growth in 2025 does not depend on a single pillar. Industry, especially processing and manufacturing, has clearly recovered; the service sector has grown well thanks to domestic consumption and tourism; investment and exports continue to play an important role, despite facing a lot of pressure from the external market.
2025 is a pivotal year for the socio-economic development plan for the period 2021-2025, the above results help Vietnam complete and exceed many medium-term targets, creating a favorable "fallout point" for the period 2026-2030.
In 2025, many institutions and strategic policies, including key resolutions of the Politburo, have been completed. According to you, what driving forces will these policies create for the economy, especially in the pivotal year 2026?
- Institutional policies and strategic policies completed in 2025 - especially the key Resolutions of the Politburo - have created three important driving forces for the economy, laying a solid foundation for the pivotal year 2026.
First, the completion of institutions has unlocked the internal growth momentum. Resolutions on innovation, digital transformation, law-making and enforcement, and private economic development have directly addressed the prolonged "bottleneck" of the economy, from administrative procedures, investment environment to enforcement discipline.
Second, innovation and integration become the driving force to improve the quality of growth. In the context of shrinking growth space based on capital and cheap labor, 2025 policies have focused on productivity, science - technology and digital transformation. In parallel, the international integration strategy in the new situation helps Vietnam participate more deeply in the global value chain, better utilize new generation FTAs and supply chain shift trends.
Third, policies on energy security and macroeconomic stability create a "backbone" for 2026. Completing the policy framework on energy security, infrastructure development and inflation control helps minimize risks from outside, especially in the context of the world economy still facing many uncertainties.
Stepping into 2026, the above policies will be clearly shown through more open institutions, strengthened business confidence, increased private investment and high-quality FDI, and gradually improved productivity.
Growth of 10% in 2026 is assessed by international organizations as an "ambitious" goal for Vietnam. What are the "pivot" drivers for Vietnam to reach the finish line, sir?
- The GDP growth target of 10% in 2026 is indeed very ambitious, but it is completely grounded if Vietnam promotes strong enough "leaders" and implements breakthrough, synchronous and drastic policies.
First, the decisive driving force is still investment, especially large-scale public and private investment. International experience shows that to achieve two-digit growth, the proportion of total social investment needs to be maintained at about 34-36% of GDP, higher than the current average. The focus is not on "spending more", but on disbursing quickly, on the right projects, with the right focus on strategic infrastructure, energy, logistics, processing and manufacturing industries and industries with high spillover rates.
Second, exports and high-quality FDI continue to be an important "exogenous puller". Vietnam needs to shift from attracting FDI in quantity to quality, associated with technology, innovation and substantive links with domestic enterprises.
Third, new driving forces come from the digital economy, green economy and improving labor productivity. If social labor productivity can increase by around 8-9%/year, combined with expanding investment scale and markets, high growth will have a more substantive foundation.
Thank you, sir!
