VN-Index closed last weekend's session with the Marubozu candle model surpassing the psychological zone by 1,700 points. The notable point of this hoi is the better spread of cash flow compared to previous increases.
The contribution of the group of stocks surnamed Vingroup no longer accounts for the overwhelming proportion, instead, the VN-Index also received clear support from many other industry groups such as Banking, Securities and Petroleum. This helps the recovery process become more balanced.
However, most of the remaining industry groups are still in a sideways state, showing that although cash flow has improved, it is still not really strong and consistent throughout the market.
Moreover, liquidity is still very low, below VND20 trillion per session, reflecting investors' cautious sentiment and showing that large cash flows are still out of observation. After the previous sharp decline, the market needs more time to absorb the supply of goods stuck in the recovery process.
With next week (December 22-26) also the last week of the year, the market is likely to maintain a state of " rising cautiously": cash flow is no longer too excited, but there is still a trend of "changing pillars, changing groups" to keep the index's pace. When the VN-Index enters the resistance zone of 1,700, it is difficult to expect immediate liquidity to explode, because the portfolio status of many investors is still " teff" compared to the index.
When the pressure from foreign monetary policies eases, exchange rate risks and capital shift risks also cool down, helping the domestic market have a better "breath gap". However, the impact on the stock market will not be immediate in an explosive form, but in the form of building a foundation.
Analysts from Phu Hung Securities Company believe that if the VN-Index can maintain above the 1,700-point threshold in the coming sessions, it can be expected to repair momentum and escape the correction channel, with the near target being towards the 1,760-point threshold. On the other hand, the short-term support threshold was raised to around 1,650 points. The weakening signal below this threshold may cause the recovery momentum to be violated.
Analysts from MBS Securities Company gave their assessment that the base scenario is that the VN-Index fluctuates narrowly around the 1,690-1,710 range to absorb short-term profit-taking, before confirming more clearly the ability to overcome the resistance. If demand remains unchanged and there are no external variables (ex rates, international news), the "go - go - pull" beat may continue, but the differentiation will be large: stocks with a foundation and reasonable valuation will attract money, while the group of hot increases will easily fluctuate. This is also the closing period of the funds' portfolios, so the seasonal factor may appear in some stock groups.
Pinetree Securities Company is leaning towards a positive scenario in the short term. The groups of stocks that have moved sideways and built foundations last week are likely to have better movements next week, notably Construction, Real Estate, Steel and Technology. However, the possibility of a strong breakthrough is not high as the market has just experienced a rather steep decline, so the most suitable trend during this period is still recovery with accumulation, instead of widespread heating up.
At present, experts say that investors should prioritize stocks with a solid foundation and low risk, instead of looking for opportunities in speculative industry groups. The focus is on leading enterprises, healthy balance sheets, stable business cash flow, as well as low borrowing rates.
Accordingly, priority will be given to some banking stocks with good asset quality, infrastructure - public investment enterprises with clear sources of employment and cash flow, along with leading consumer stocks, which are likely to benefit from the buying recovery trend at the end of the year. In addition, investors can pay more attention to utilities and oil and gas enterprises, as production demand continues to be boosted.
