After 2 weeks of adjustment pressure, the stock market recorded the trading week of June 16-20, with many efforts to return to conquer the old peak in the 1,340 - 1,360 point area. VN-Index increased the first session of the week under the positive influence of the oil and gas group, then had 4 sessions of fluctuations in a narrow range around the price range of 1,350 points. At the end of the week, the VN-Index increased by 2.57% to 1,349.35 points.
The cash flow in the market continuously rotates between stock groups, but each increase focuses only on a few specific codes, instead of creating even push-ups for the entire industry. The banking group is carried out alternately from STB, TCB to ACB, MBB.
The cash flow circulates into the Oil and Gas, Real Estate, Securities, Vingroup stocks and Seafood sectors but has not created sustainable growth momentum. In addition, some stocks with their own stories are also noticed by cash flow, but in general, the whole market still lacks clear consensus - reflecting the cautious psychology and short-term surfing strategies of investors in the context of a lack of new supporting information.
It is worth noting that the sentiment of domestic investors has improved significantly in the context of the Government prioritizing policies to promote growth, strengthening expectations for positive business results of listed enterprises this year.
The abundant liquidity of the system, reflected in sharp declines in interbank interest rates, is also a positive signal for financial investment channels. Despite a series of important events such as the Fed meeting keeping interest rates unchanged, the derivatives maturity session and the ETF structure, the market has maintained an upward trend.
Entering the next trading week, experts predict that the market will continue to " test supply" at the peak around 1,350 points. If the VN-Index continues to stay strong above the 1,350-point mark, the short-term increase will be consolidated, opening up the expectation of conquering a higher area at 1,380 - 1,400 points.
According to analysts at Pinetree Securities Company, the performance next week will be neutral and negative. With the index unable to break out of the old peak and cash flow showing clear signs of caution, it is likely that the VN-Index will have an adjustment next week to fill the gap at the 1,3381,344 point range.
Market sentiment is likely to continue to be in a state of tug-of-war as investors are waiting for the results of the tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US expected in early July. This will be a key factor determining the next trend of the market in the coming period.
Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh - Head of Macro and Market Strategy, VNDIRECT Analysis Department recommends that investors should keep their portfolios balanced, avoiding excessive increase in proportion. Risk management is still a key factor, although the market is sending more positive signals. Securities with good liquidity and stable business prospects, less affected by geopolitical tensions such as retail, technology and real estate, may be given priority for holding during this period
Mr. Nguyen Trong Dinh Tam - Deputy Director of Analysis at Asean Securities Corporation (Aseansc) commented that this June is a pivotal period for the VN-Index to accumulate, gain momentum before overcoming obstacles and forming new uptrend in the third quarter of 2025.
Mr. Tam said that the market is converging many supporting factors. Firstly, macro policies towards fiscal easing and monetary easing create favorable conditions for cash flow to seek opportunities in investment channels such as Securities. Second, the valuation is attractive as the index's P/E forward is at 11.6 times, significantly lower than other "money pumping" cycles in the past as well as the 5-year average.
Third, the prospect of upgrading the stock market according to the FTSE Russell classification framework could promote cash flow from foreign investors to promote the search for opportunities in the Vietnamese stock market.
