After a long holiday, the stock market entered the first trading session of 2026 with a rather cautious sentiment from investors, especially after unexpected geopolitical fluctuations in Venezuela. This caution caused the market to trade sluggishly, VN-Index fluctuated gently for most of the trading time.
There was a time when the VN-Index quickly reversed to decrease due to increased selling pressure on a large scale when the market had gone through the last 3 positive recovery sessions of 2025. In the last minutes of the afternoon session, selling orders suddenly pushed up the power board, causing many codes to turn down, the red color also covered the power board with more than 200 codes decreasing.
And also at this time, unexpected cash flow poured into the group of capital-rich stocks, especially the Vingroup group including VIC, VHM, VPL and VRE. Although not enough to spread throughout the market, the return of these 4 codes was just enough for VN Index to end the first session of 2025 in green.
VN-Index closed the first trading session of 2026 up nearly 4 points, officially setting the highest score in history at 1,788 points.
However, the main color of the HoSE electricity board is still red with 223 decliners compared to 95 gainers.
Contributing to today's upward session, in addition to VHM (contributing 8.2 points), VIC (nearly 6 points), VPL (2.4 points), VRE (1 point), there is also GAS (2.8 points). Thus, the 5 stock codes mentioned above contributed more than 20 points to increase for VN-Index.
Liquidity in the first session of 2026 increased by more than 3,800 billion VND compared to the last session of 2025. There were 870 million shares matched on the HoSE exchange, equivalent to a transaction value of 25,892 billion VND. However, contrary to the return of domestic and foreign cash flow, foreign investors tended to retreat when net selling 735 billion VND on the HoSE exchange.
Despite the strong increase of the VN-Index, the valuation according to calculations by many securities companies shows that it has not yet reached the "overheated" zone. The P/E of the VN-Index is currently 15.7 times, significantly lower than past peaks such as 2018 and 2021 (18-22 times). If the Vingroup group is excluded, the valuation of the rest of the market is even lower. For non-financial stocks, the P/E is only around 15 times, equivalent to the bottom level recorded in April 2025.
Statistics in the last 10 years show that the probability of the stock market increasing in the first week of the new year reached 60%. The average increase in increasing weeks reached 3.35% while the average decrease in decreasing weeks was -1.59%.
According to the baseline scenario, investors believe that VN-Index is highly likely to move sideways in the first trading week of the new year. Although upward inertia is being maintained from the last week of December 2025, the market will face supply force around the important psychological resistance level of 1,800 +/-.
In addition, VIC and VHM stocks, which are leading cash flow and market points in the short term, may need time to test the resistance zone around the historical peak.
In addition, some uncertain external factors such as geopolitical tensions and tariffs can make cash flow more cautious.
On the positive side, the USD/VND exchange rate has cooled down significantly compared to the end of 2024, reducing pressure on the market. Interbank interest rates have also decreased sharply, showing that system liquidity has improved.
