Domestic consumption and investment promote growth
According to new data published by the Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance), the Vietnamese economy in the first 6 months of 2025 continued a strong recovery process, starting from the second quarter of 2025. GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 reached 7.96% over the same period, the first 6 months of the year reached 7.52%. This is the highest GDP growth rate since 2011.
Notably, high GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was achieved mainly on drivers such as consumption (up 7.95%) and investment (up 7.98%), instead of relying on exports as a year ago.
Within the framework of the Scientific Conference with the theme " markete and price developments in Vietnam in the first 6 months of the year and forecast for the whole year 2025", Associate Professor. Dr. Nguyen Dao Tung - Director of the Academy of Finance assessed that extended fiscal policies such as tax exemption, reduction, increase public investment or loose monetary measures such as interest rate reduction, increase credit limit, and flexible exchange rate adjustment have truly been a fulcrum for Vietnamese enterprises in the context of many uncertain world economies".
Another positive point is that the number of newly registered and returning to operation enterprises in the first 6 months of 2025 reached more than 152.7 thousand enterprises, an increase of 26.5% over the same period last year. Thanks to that, employed workers in the first 6 months of 2025 increased by 538.1 thousand people, and their income increased by 10.1% compared to the same period in 2024.
The data also shows that along with high economic growth, macro balances are still maintained stably. The average inflation in the first 6 months of 2025 is still controlled at a reasonable level of 3.27%, lower than the target of 4-4.5%.
Risks from exchange rates and the world economy still exist
However, the challenges in the last 6 months of the year are still huge. With trade tensions caused by US tariff policies, the world economy is expected to slow down, creating great challenges for Vietnam's exports and production.
In the country, the relatively rapid increase in exchange rates in the first half of 2025 may put pressure on prices in the coming time. The advantage is that the world's core commodity prices are unlikely to increase sharply in the context of a less optimistic global economic outlook" - Associate Professor. Dr. Nguyen Dao Tung assessed.
Forecasting market and price developments in the last 6 months of 2025, Dr. Nguyen Duc Do - Deputy Director in charge of the Institute of Economics and Finance, Academy of Finance said that the unfavorable economic context for exports and GDP growth will help curb inflation in Vietnam in the second half of 2025. 2025 is likely to be the 11th consecutive year that Vietnam has successfully controlled inflation below 4%.
Although the average inflation for the whole year of 2025 is forecast to rotate around 3.4%, pressures from exchange rates and credit growth to inflation need to be closely monitored to have appropriate inflation control policies in 2026 - Dr. Nguyen Duc Do emphasized.
A representative of the Price Management Department (Ministry of Finance) also said that in the second half of 2025, there are many potential factors putting pressure on prices, requiring price management to be flexible, timely and effective to ensure good control of inflation in the conditions of strongly promoted resources to achieve the highest economic growth rate.
