Establishing a new growth model
In 2025, the world situation will continue to develop in a complex and unpredictable manner, strategic competition between major countries will become increasingly fierce, financial and monetary markets will fluctuate, affecting the global economic growth prospects. In that context, under the leadership of the Party and the proactive and drastic management of the Government, Vietnam maintains macroeconomic stability, controls inflation, and ensures major balances of the economy.
At the Vietnam Economic Forum 2025, with a vision to 2026, held on December 16, Mr. Nguyen Thanh Nghi - Head of the Central Committee for Policy and Strategy - said that growth for the whole year of 2025 is expected to reach over 8%. The Political Report submitted to the 14th National Congress of the Party set a target of striving to achieve an average economic growth rate of 10% or more in the period of 2026 - 2030.
In the current context, to realize the growth target for 2026 and the entire 2026 - 2030 period is a big challenge, requiring a new development mindset, establishing an innovative growth model associated with science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, green transformation - Mr. Nguyen Thanh Nghi said.
The theme "Vietnam's economy develops rapidly, sustainably, green transformation in the digital age" of the Forum clearly reflected the consistent orientation of not exchanging the environment for growth, shifting from growth based heavily on capital and resources to growth based on innovation, science and technology, digital economy and green economy.
According to Associate Professor, Dr. Bui Quang Tuan - Vice President of the Vietnam Economic Science Association, the growth rate of over 10%/year is very high. However, setting such a high target is necessary, creating a foundation for Vietnam to enter the Top 30 largest economies in the world, becoming a high-middle-income country by 2030 and a high-income country by 2045.
The period of 2026 - 2030 is the most important growth period since the renovation period. If Vietnam does not innovate its growth model and continue to rely on old growth drivers, mainly relying on the exploitation of resources, capital and cheap labor, it will be difficult to achieve the double-digit growth target. These motivations have been gradually depleted, not enough to ensure sustainable growth and increase added value - Associate Professor, Dr. Bui Quang Tuan affirmed.
From the perspective of financial and budgetary management, Deputy Minister of Finance Do Thanh Trung affirmed that with the motto of taking internal resources as long-term strategies, external resources as an important, regular and breakthrough factor, mobilizing enough capital is a big task, but properly allocating, using effectively and transparently to create high added value is even more important, needing to be put first.
He also said that fiscal policy needs to continue to play a role in creating long-term growth, being managed proactively, sustainably and with focus, prioritizing the State budget expenditure structure for development investment and ensuring social security.
Public investment as "prey capital" creates leverage for the economy
To realize the 10% growth target, Vietnam needs a synchronous combination of public investment to play a leading role, along with the digital economy and artificial intelligence, green economy, exports, high-quality FDI inflows and the private economic sector.
According to Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang - National Economics University, if effectively implemented, public investment will be an important "prey", attracting private investment and FDI, opening up new development space for economic regions. Large-scale infrastructure projects will create conditions for Vietnamese enterprises to participate more deeply in the construction value chain, materials, mechanics, equipment, consulting and operation, instead of stopping at the role of subcontractors.
In the coming period, Vietnam will enter the peak of many strategic infrastructure projects such as the North-South high-speed railway and renewable energy projects. The simultaneous start of construction and inauguration of 234 projects nationwide with many large-scale "super projects" on December 19, 2025 has demonstrated the strong determination of the Government in its efforts to promote public investment" - Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang analyzed.
In addition, FDI exports and attraction continue to be a pillar of growth, but the requirement is to improve quality, strongly shift to high-value sectors such as supporting industry, semiconductors, logistics and high technology, associated with strengthening linkages between FDI enterprises and domestic enterprises.
Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang also believes that the digital economy and artificial intelligence will become new growth drivers, helping to improve the productivity of the entire economy, opening up opportunities for startups, small and medium enterprises. Along with that, the green economy, especially the formation of a carbon market, is gradually becoming a specific investment field, attracting large capital sources and creating more jobs.
Finally, the private economic sector is identified as a long-term decisive driving force.
Institial reform, simplifying administrative procedures, opening up the capital market, especially the bond and credit markets, will create conditions for private enterprises to make breakthroughs, contributing more strongly to economic growth - Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang affirmed.
double-digit growth target is feasible
At the Vietnam Economic Forum 2025, with prospects for 2026 (VEPF), Politburo member and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh attended and delivered a speech.
The Prime Minister said that the international context in recent times has changed rapidly and complicatedly, with many unprecedented and unpredictable factors appearing. However, thanks to the leadership of the Party and the participation of the entire political system and people, Vietnam has still achieved many outstanding results, higher than in 2024.
The economy shows good resilience; the macro economy is stable; inflation is controlled; major balances are guaranteed; public debt, government debt, and foreign debt are well controlled. These results have proven that the Vietnamese economy is resilient to external fluctuations.
With the double-digit growth target, Vietnam needs to develop new driving forces with a fundamental innovative mindset, from approach to implementation organization method. It is necessary to diversify forms of resource mobilization, enhance the companionship between the State and enterprises, between entities in the economy; link development with economic restructuring and growth model innovation.
The goal of rapid and sustainable growth, double-digit growth of Vietnam is to be well-founded and feasible, not a formal or subjective figure - the Prime Minister affirmed.
Tuyet Lan
