Ensuring large investment capital scale
According to the assessment of the Department of Financial Institutions (Ministry of Finance), the double-digit growth target in the period 2026 - 2030 needs to simultaneously ensure large investment capital scale and strongly improve capital use efficiency.
It is estimated that total social investment capital in this period needs to reach about 38.5 million billion VND, more than double compared to the period 2021 - 2025. At the same time, the average investment/GDP ratio needs to be raised to about 40%, higher than the average of about 33% in the previous period.
In recent years, Vietnam's total social investment capital has been maintained at about 32-34% of GDP - a relatively high rate for a developing economy. However, compared to countries that have maintained high growth for a long time such as South Korea (35-38% of GDP in the period 1970-1990), Singapore (35-40% of GDP), China (40-45% of GDP in the period 1990-2015), Vietnam's investment capital scale is still not enough to create a strong breakthrough, while the efficiency of capital use is still limited.
In the capital structure, the State budget continues to play an important role, but it is necessary to diversify resources and maximize the role of the private sector to realize the double-digit growth target.
To achieve high growth targets, state investment capital needs to increase by about 22% per year, while the private sector and foreign investment capital also need to increase sharply to supplement resources for the economy.
Fiscal policy leads investment
From a macro perspective, Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet - University of Economics, Vietnam National University, Hanoi - believes that the Vietnamese economy is facing a pivotal moment, opening a new chapter in the country's socio-economic development history.
To achieve this breakthrough growth goal, the macroeconomic management system, especially the coordination between fiscal policy and monetary policy, needs a fundamental shift in thinking. If in the period 2021-2024, these two policies mainly play a role in stabilizing the economy and supporting businesses to recover after the pandemic, then in the coming period, they need to become policy levers to unlock and ensure resources for development.
According to him, in the coming period, fiscal policy needs to play a leading role through public investment in strategic infrastructure sectors, while monetary policy plays a role in ensuring the stability of the financial system, providing liquidity and regulating capital flows into sectors with higher productivity and added value.
Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet believes that Vietnam still has relatively large fiscal space. In the period 2021 - 2025, Vietnam's public debt has decreased from about 42.7% of GDP to about 36 - 37% of GDP, significantly lower than the allowed public debt ceiling.
According to him, public investment needs to play the role of "bait capital" to activate resources from the private sector and foreign investors. Large infrastructure projects in the fields of transportation, energy, digital transformation or logistics not only help improve the competitiveness of the economy but also open up new development space for many economic sectors.
Fiscal and monetary policy determines high growth
According to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang - National Economics University, to successfully implement the goal of continuous double-digit average growth in the period 2026-2030, shifting from a low-middle income country to a high-middle income country by 2030 and becoming a high-income industrialized country by 2045, the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies needs to be linked to the establishment of a new growth model.
Fiscal policy mobilizes and allocates financial resources through taxes, fees, charges and government spending, including recurrent expenditures and development investment expenditures. In which, development investment includes public investment, private investment and foreign investment. High investment efficiency (ICOR) reflects that the scale of mobilized capital does not increase or only increases slightly but still meets the high growth target.
Fiscal policy is usually passed by the National Assembly from the end of the previous year to be implemented from the following year. However, tightening fiscal policy through sharp and sudden cuts in public spending without improving spending efficiency can reduce growth. Conversely, excessive fiscal easing but lacking an effective absorption mechanism through widespread impact projects can lead to waste of resources and create inflationary pressure.
Meanwhile, monetary policy regulates through tools such as credit, interest rates and exchange rates. According to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang's assessment, these two policies are always harmoniously coordinated, promoting the continuous operation of transactions to create added value in a socialist-oriented market economy. Any imprudent and unsynchronized adjustment of these two policies may lead to the risk of exceeding control, eliminating the impact room of the policy. This situation causes difficulties in maintaining stable growth or even a decline in growth.
In the context of economic openness, high economic openness, and quite favorable capital movement, the coordination of these 2 policies needs to take into account international impacts, both favorable and unfavorable, to maximize efficiency.
At 2:00 PM on March 12, Lao Dong Newspaper in coordination with the Ministry of Finance and the State Bank of Vietnam organized the Workshop "Effectively mobilizing capital sources, serving the goal of double-digit growth". The workshop was attended by leaders of the Ministry of Finance, leaders of the State Bank of Vietnam, representatives of management agencies, economic experts, financial institutions, banks, investment funds and businesses.
At the workshop, delegates will exchange views on many topics such as developing the stock market into an important medium and long-term capital mobilization channel of the economy; the role of fiscal policy and monetary policy in macroeconomic management; improving credit quality, promoting green credit; as well as solutions to attract long-term capital flows from domestic and foreign institutional investors.
The workshop is also a forum for management agencies, financial institutions, investors and businesses to share experiences, identify barriers in mobilizing and allocating capital sources, thereby proposing policy recommendations to develop a more balanced and efficient financial system, contributing to the achievement of the goal of high and sustainable growth of the economy in the coming period.
The conference will be broadcast live on Lao Dong e-newspaper www. laodong.vn and the YouTube channel of Lao Dong Newspaper.
