Market Window" of national stature
2025 marks a turning point when Vietnamese durian for the first time surpasses Thailand in exports to China - the world's largest consumption market. In addition to expanding planting area codes, standardizing packaging and tracing origin, off-season treatment techniques are considered an important competitive advantage. Off-season is controlling plants to bloom and harvest from November to February of the following year, right at the time when Thai supply decreases, helping Vietnamese durian effectively utilize the "market gap".
MSc Nguyen Phuoc Tuyen - former Director of Dong Thap Agricultural Extension Center - said that off-season is no longer a separate technique of each gardener but has become an element in the national competitive strategy.
If the main crop is the foundation, then the off-season crop is the lever to help Vietnam break through in the short and medium term," Mr. Tuyen said.
In Ngu Hiep commune - a key durian growing area of Dong Thap - at one point the Ri6 off-season price reached about 200,000 VND/kg. But according to many gardeners, what is more valuable is not only the price, but the ability to proactively "go one step ahead" of competitors.
From planting area advantages to industry advantages
Dong Thap province currently has about 32,000 hectares of durian, with an estimated output of 556,000 tons/year - the highest level in the Mekong Delta region. Ngu Hiep commune alone has nearly 3,000 hectares of durian on a total area of 3,200 hectares of agricultural land.
Mr. Ho Ba Hung - one of the pioneers in handling off-season crops - said: "Each garden has a different way of doing things, but we exchange regularly to learn from experience." Thanks to that, nearly 20,000 hectares participated in off-season crop treatment, with a flowering rate of over 90%.
According to Dr. Vo Huu Thoai - Director of the Southern Fruit Tree Institute (SOFRI), Vietnam's long-term advantage lies in the fact that off-season techniques have been scientificized, no longer relying solely on folk experience. In the period 2018-2021, SOFRI completed the process of handling off-season flowering and was recognized by the Department of Crop Production for technical advances applied in the Southern provinces, creating a foundation to help Vietnamese durian develop more sustainably than many countries in the region.
Meanwhile, some experts believe that in Thailand, the widespread implementation of off-season farming faces many obstacles due to the large scale of gardens, high costs, and unfavorable temperature and temperature range conditions compared to Vietnam.
The double-edged sword
However, the off-season is not just rosy. One of the important stages of handling off-season is to tighten water to create drought in the root area, stimulating flowering. In the context of global climate change, erratic rain and sunshine, controlling growth is increasingly unpredictable.
Mr. Le Van Dung, a garden owner in My Thanh, said that there are years when it has to be treated twice, but the trees still bloom little. Right in Ngu Hiep - considered the "childhood" of the off-season - there are still failures due to weather fluctuations.
In addition to technical and farming risks, off-season often entails higher amounts of fertilizers and pesticides than in the main season. If there is no control, the risk of soil degradation, environmental pollution and food safety violations is inevitable. In fact, in 2025, in Ngu Hiep, there are 8 planting area codes that were temporarily suspended or revoked due to cadmium contamination - a clear warning that hot growth may leave consequences.
Saltwater intrusion and hydrological fluctuations in the Mekong Delta are creating more pressure, forcing some Dong Thap gardeners to move planting areas into Dong Thap Muoi fields to reduce risks. However, durian is very sensitive to salt, alum and water level fluctuations, so if uncontrolled, it can disrupt planning and cause great damage. Many experts warn that chasing short-term high prices can make off-season pressure instead of sustainable advantage.
From opportunities to long-term strategy
Some recent analyses show that Thai durian production in 2026 may be affected by local floods and intense heat, reducing productivity and quality. This could be a "double advantage" for Vietnam in the short term. However, this is also a market opportunity for Vietnam to transform into sustainable competitiveness.
China is tightening technical barriers, including the requirement to prove the rice/fruit ratio that Thailand has invested in equipment for many years. Therefore, the problem is not only to maintain the off-season advantage but also to raise the standards of the entire chain, from growing areas, input materials, heavy metal control to traceability and deep processing.
Durian has brought many "joys" to gardeners, but for sustainability, the industry needs to shift from local advantages to long-term strategies, from experience to science and from hot growth to sustainable development. This is also the direction Dong Thap set for the 2026-2030 period, which will be clarified in the next issue.
With an area of 32,000ha and an output of 556,000 tons/year, Dong Thap leads the Mekong Delta region in durian, of which 70% of the area applies off-season treatment.
