Relying mainly on bank credit is under a lot of pressure
Vietnam's economy in 2025 will maintain macroeconomic stability, growth will achieve positive results, inflation will be controlled, state budget revenue will increase sharply and foreign investment flows will continue to improve. According to the assessment of Deputy Governor of the State Bank Pham Thanh Ha, the Party and State have set a growth target of 8% or more in 2025 and double-digit growth in the period of 2026 - 2030, towards the group of countries with high average income in 2030 and high income in 2045.
To realize this goal, the economy needs to maintain a continuous, stable and sustainable high growth rate, in which the problem of mobilizing and allocating financial resources that are large enough, effective and long-term is placed at the center. In practice, the growth model based mainly on bank credit is under a lot of pressure, requiring a shift in its role to the capital market.
Improving capital allocation efficiency to achieve higher growth rate
Ms. Nguyen Hoai Thu - General Director of VinaCapital Securities Investment - commented that the capital market, especially the stock market, needs to be upgraded to become a key medium and long-term capital mobilization channel. This is not only a requirement to share the burden with the banking system, but also a condition to form a balanced financial structure, supporting high growth in the long term.
Ms. Thu believes that the Vietnamese stock market plays a very important role in mobilizing resources for the private economic sector. However, the rate of people participating in the market is still low compared to the potential, only at a few per cent of the population, reflecting a lot of room for development in the capital market.
Meanwhile, Dr. Nguyen Ba Hung - Chief Economist of the Asian Development Bank - emphasized that the core factor of the market is capital efficiency.
According to Dr. Nguyen Ba Hung, Vietnam's ICOR index is currently at about 6, showing that to create a growth zone, it requires a significantly larger investment capital compared to some economies in the region such as Korea or China. This reflects that there is still a lot of room to improve capital efficiency. If the efficiency of capital allocation is improved, the economy can achieve higher growth without having to mobilize too many new resources.
Solutions for mobilizing and effectively using financial resources
Discussing the mobilization and effective use of financial resources for the economic growth target for the period 2026 - 2030, Dr. Can Van Luc - Chief Economist of BIDV Bank and member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council - said that in 2025, capital is still expected to account for 44.1% of growth, while labor accounts for only 8.9% and total factor productivity is about 47%. According to him, to achieve high economic growth, along with increasing investment capital, Vietnam needs to pay special attention to improving labor productivity and growth quality.
Dr. Can Van Luc emphasized the need to accelerate the completion and reform of the financial system, building a legal framework for new models and fields such as green finance, carbon market, international financial center and modern financial products. Along with that is developing the financial market in a more balanced direction, focusing on expanding the capital market and derivatives market, diversifying financial institutions such as investment funds, pension funds, REITs and non-bank financial institutions, thereby reducing pressure on bank credit.
The removal of backlog projects, the standardization of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, along with the early formation of green transformation support funds, venture capital funds and innovation funds, are considered important factors for the capital market to truly play a leading role in growth in the coming period.
