Standard Chartered's macroeconomic report just released at the end of October 2025 has raised Vietnam's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 7.5% (in the July report, Standard Chartered forecast Vietnam's growth in 2025 to 6.1%). The forecast growth rate for 2026 has also been increased to 7.2%.
The report also adjusted the inflation forecast to 3.4% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, reflecting strong growth momentum but price pressure is gradually cooling down.
This unit commented that Vietnam is consolidating its position in the global supply chain thanks to strong trade activities and extensive integration. Of which, total export turnover in September 2025 reached 42.7 billion USD, up 24.7% over the same period last year. This growth is driven by key industries: electronics, computers, phones and machinery reflecting the continuous expansion of industrial manufacturing and investment.
Standard Chartered experts said that Vietnam's foreign balance remains strong, supported by strong trade flows and stable exchange rate prospects. After a period of foreign exchange reserves declining due to the stronger US dollar, Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves are likely to recover, reflecting a more stable macro economy and active commodity trading.
Domestic credit growth is recovering strongly, showing that the economy is continuing to recover even if policy interest rates do not decrease. Credit growth is currently over 15% over the same period last year, reflecting improved business confidence and increased financial demand. Lending activities remain strong, supported by abundant liquidity conditions and government measures to stimulate growth.
According to Standard Chartered, foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to be the main growth driver. Disbursed FDI capital increased by 8.5% (reaching 18.8 billion USD) over the same period last year in the first 9 months of 2025, while FDI capital committed to increase by 15.2% (reaching 28.5 billion USD) over the same period last year.
Mr. Tim Leelahaphan - Senior Economist in charge of Vietnam and Thailand of Standard Chartered Bank - shared: "Vietnam's resilience and adaptability are demonstrated by successfully attracting strong FDI inflows, stable export growth, and strengthening Vietnam's strategic role in diversifying the global supply chain and showing strong prospects for continuous economic growth".
In its October report, HSBC also adjusted Vietnam's annual growth forecast to become the fastest growing economy in ASEAN after the Statistics Office announced GDP in the third quarter. According to HSBC, the above results are "surprisingly" because they are much higher than the market's expectation of 7.2%.
In response to GDP growth in the third quarter, HSBC raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 7.9% (up from the previous forecast of 6.6%) and 6.7% for 2026. Thus, HSBC's forecast is currently the highest among international organizations and is approaching the target set by Vietnam of over 8%.
Previously, in the report on Vietnam's economic prospects just released near the end of September, the global market and economic research department of UOB Bank (Singapore) said that Vietnam's real gross domestic product (GDP) increased sharply by 7.96% over the same period in the second quarter of 2025 (compared to the adjustment of 7.05% in the first quarter of 2025), surpassing the forecast of 6.85% by Bloomberg news agency and 6.1% of UOB itself before.
