The Vietnamese stock market has had positive developments since the end of February 2025, especially after the VN-Index surpassed the important resistance level of 1,300 points in the trading session on February 24. After this milestone, the index maintained a positive increase, with liquidity improving significantly.
As of the trading session on March 18, the VN-Index stopped at 1,330.97 points, adjusting slightly after the first session of the week. In the overall trend, the market will have fluctuations and adjustments after a period of strong increase.
Commenting on the market outlook in the coming time, Mr. Tran Hoang Son - Director of Market Strategy, VPBank Securities Company (VPBankS) - said that the Top 10 securities companies all have a very positive view of the market this year. On average, the VN-Index is expected to reach 1,420 to 1,450 points by the end of 2025. However, Mr. Son noted that in the forecasts of some companies, the range of fluctuations is quite large due to the presence of macro-risk factors.
According to experts from VPBankS, market disruption from 2024 will continue to last until 2025, the positive time will last until the second half of the year.
Mr. Son predicted that this year, foreign investors may not be selling net as strongly as in 2024, but selling pressure from this block will still be a factor that holds back the increase of the VN-Index this year. In the first half of 2025, the index is forecast to fluctuate around 1,200 - 1,300 points.
In particular, from April to June, the market may fall into a low pressure area, when supporting information after the financial reporting season for the first quarter of 2025 gradually decreases. May is also the time when domestic and foreign investors often tend to "Sell in May".
However, Mr. Son said that the market will gradually improve from August to September, when Vietnam enters a cycle of receiving positive information related to the story of upgrading the market.
In terms of macro factors, concerns about US tariff policies may be affected in the first half of the year. However, according to VPBankS's assessment, by the second half of 2025, Vietnam will not be affected mainly by President Donald Trump's policies, opening up room for growth for the market.
Meanwhile, Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) is one of the units that gave the most optimistic view. VCBS's analysis team stated that if the Vietnamese market is valued close to the regional average, the VN-Index could reach 1,555 points, with a P/E of about 14.6 times and an EPS growth rate of 12.2% for the whole market.
With a positive perspective, Shinhan Securities Company forecasts that the Vietnamese stock market in 2025 will be supported by the internal strength of the economy. Shinhan estimates that listed company profits can grow up to 20% this year. In the most negative scenario, the VN-Index is forecast to remain firmly in the 1,200 - 1,285 point range. In the base scenario, the index can completely return to the old peak of 1,500 points.
Thus, although the market may face short-term fluctuations, especially in the first half of the year, the long-term prospects of the VN-Index are still positively assessed. Investors need to pay attention to risk management during the volatile period, while preparing to welcome opportunities in the last months of the year, when supporting factors gradually take on the impact.
