The record increase in gold prices and the prolonged weakness of crude oil prices are the two most prominent contrasting colors in the global commodity market this year.
According to Goldman Sachs, both trends are likely to continue into 2026.
In a report released on December 18, Goldman Sachs analysts, including Daan Struyven and Ms. Samantha Dart, said that gold prices could set a new record next year, while the oil market continues to be under pressure from supply. The bank's base scenario is gold prices rising to $4,900/ounce, with the risk leaning up.
Overall, the commodity market is forecast to increase slightly this year, but this general picture hides a huge differentiation between key commodity groups. While gold continues to increase thanks to strong central bank buying, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cutting cycle and cash flow into ETFs, crude oil prices are under heavy pressure from concerns about large-scale excess supply.
Shooting US interest rates is starting to make ETF investors compete directly with central banks to hold limited physical gold, said the Goldman Sachs analysis team.
According to this bank, two key drivers - highly structured demand from central banks and cyclical support from the Fed's interest rate cuts will continue to push gold prices higher.
In contrast to gold, the outlook for oil is considered unfavorable. Goldman Sachs said that unless there are major supply shocks or OPEC suddenly cuts production, the oil market in 2026 will need lower prices to rebalance supply and demand. The bank expects supply surplus in 2026 to increase ASEAN trade reserves faster.
According to the baseline scenario, Brent oil prices are forecast to average at 56 USD/barrel next year, while WTI oil prices are about 52 USD/barrel.
In the trading session on Friday, Brent oil prices fell below the $60/barrel mark, recording the second consecutive week of decline, despite geopolitical tensions in Venezuela raising concerns about the risk of supply disruption. At the same time, gold prices were trading around $4,323/ounce.
In addition to gold and oil, Goldman Sachs also made some other notable forecasts: Natural gas prices tend to decrease due to "the largest supply wave ever"; copper is expected to outperform aluminum; while iron prices are under pressure to weaken due to the sharp increase in mining output from new mines.
