Strong growth in the context of a declining outlook for the world economy
In the first 6 months of the year, with determined efforts and steadfastness in the goals, the results of socio-economic development were achieved quite comprehensively, "opposite" to the prospect of a decline in the world economy. According to Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang - economic growth has achieved high results, many production and business indicators, the budget... are better every month and quarter.
It is forecasted that by the end of May, GDP in the second quarter will increase by 7.67%. In the first 6 months, economic growth reached 7.31% over the same period. However, by the end of June, GDP in the first half of the year could increase by 0.2-0.3 percentage points compared to the forecast, or about 7.5-7.6%, the highest level in nearly 20 years" - Minister Nguyen Van Thang said.
According to the report of the Ministry of Finance, the processing and manufacturing industry in the second quarter of 2025 increased by 10.65% over the same period, increased by 10% in 6 months, achieved the set scenario and was among the few years of 6-month growth reaching double digits since 2011. 6-month exports increased by 14.4%, trade alone reached 7.63 billion USD. Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in the second quarter increased by 9% over the same period, 6 months increased by 9.3%; international tourists in 6 months reached nearly 10.7 million people, up 20.7% over the same period.
In addition, total social investment capital in the second quarter increased by 10.5% over the same period, in the first 6 months increased by 9.8%; total registered FDI capital in the first 6 months reached over 21.5 billion USD, up 32.6% over the same period (highest since 2009), realized FDI capital reached over 11.7 billion USD, up 8.1%. The number of enterprises entering and re-entering the market in the first 6 months reached 152.7 thousand enterprises, 20% higher than the number of enterprises withdrawing from the market (127.2 thousand enterprises).
Important driving force to achieve goals
Although the economy is still performing positively, the pressure to achieve the growth target of over 8% this year is very high. Dr. Can Van Luc - an economic expert - said that Vietnam needs to maintain an export front, not allowing export value to decrease. In addition, the growth momentum this year also comes from consumption and public investment.
It is expected that public investment in 2025 will increase by about 30% compared to the previous year, contributing about 1.8% to GDP. This is an important driving force to promote production, create jobs and stimulate domestic demand. In particular, the private economy is still considered the locomotive for growth, and needs to continue to be facilitated for development through groups of policies to support consumption, stimulate investment and improve the business environment" - Dr. Can Van Luc emphasized.
Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet - Lecturer at the University of Economics (VNU-E) - recommends that in the coming time, macro policies need to be issued carefully, with a multidimensional impact assessment and a specific roadmap. In particular, promoting the spirit of reform and streamlining institutions, towards effectiveness, efficiency, modernity, transparency, ease of understanding and easy implementation to reduce business risks and compliance costs.
In the short term, ensure policy space for macroeconomic stability, curb inflation, to support domestic economic activities and vulnerable groups; ensure effective disbursement of public investment and the use of state assets/ resources, combine domestic private resources and FDI capital in key investment projects, especially economic development projects.
In the medium term, focus on improving the business environment, reducing business conditions and risks, supporting business development, enhancing and developing the workforce, science and technology to improve competitiveness.
In the long term, develop programs to implement policies and economic development strategies linking fiscal and monetary policies to diversify resources for the development of key industries and technologies with the goal of promoting efficiency and spreading sustainable growth" - Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet recommended.
