Switzerland's gold exports in March recorded a strong recovery after a previous period of decline, clearly reflecting the complex fluctuations of the global gold market in the context of increasing geopolitical and financial instability.
According to the latest customs data, Switzerland's gold exports increased by 30% compared to the previous month. In which, gold exports to the UK surged to 57.6 tons, the highest level since December, compared to only 19.8 tons in February. This development shows that gold is returning to major trading centers after being withdrawn from the US due to the impact of tax policies last year.
As the world's largest gold bar refining and transshipment center, Switzerland plays a key role in the global precious metal supply chain. Meanwhile, London continues to be the world's largest decentralized gold trading center, making gold flow between the two regions an important indicator of market trends.
In the opposite direction, gold exports to India - the world's second largest gold consumer - fell sharply to 3.1 tons in March, from 11.6 tons previously, showing that demand in this market is still weak.
The recovery in March came after Switzerland's gold exports fell 18% in February, to the lowest level since August last year. The main reason came from the stagnation of gold flows to the UK and India, along with the impact of trade policy factors.
Notably, Switzerland's gold export activities have been closely monitored in recent times after the US issued a shocking customs ruling in August 2025, seemingly imposing tariffs on imported gold bars. This has caused gold exports to the US to almost stagnate, falling more than 99% in just one month, to 0.3 tons.
According to the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA), the role of gold as a value-saving asset will continue to increase in an increasingly fragmented global financial system, although that does not necessarily mean that gold prices will increase sharply.
Ms. Nina-Alessa Michel – Policy Advisor at SBA, said that recent developments show a close link between gold prices and global instability. In the context of geopolitical tensions, rising public debt and volatile economic environment, demand for safe assets is clearly increasing.
However, she also noted that gold is not always an "absolute shelter". In fact, this precious metal has shown a higher-than-expected level of volatility, with strong ups and downs in each market period. A typical example is the fact that gold prices fell by 14% in just three days when US President Donald Trump nominated the new Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, while putting pressure on other assets such as silver or Bitcoin.
According to Ms. Michel, this shows that gold can react very sensitively to monetary and geopolitical policy factors, instead of just playing a role in stabilizing value as traditionally.
In fact, global gold demand is still supported by structural factors. In the first half of 2025 alone, Switzerland exported more than 476 tons of gold worth about 39 billion Swiss francs to the US, as demand in this market increased sharply due to concerns about inflation and public debt.
In addition to individual investors and central banks, new institutions such as stable money issuers are also becoming a significant buying force. Notably, Tether bought about 70 tons of gold in 2025 – a figure that surpasses many central banks.
Gold price movements in 2026 continue to clearly reflect market fluctuations. After starting the year at around 4,330 USD/ounce, gold prices quickly increased sharply and reached a historical peak of nearly 5,600 USD at the end of January, far exceeding the psychological milestone of 5,000 USD in just a short time.
However, this upward momentum did not last long. Profit-taking activities along with changes in monetary policy expectations caused gold prices to adjust sharply immediately afterwards. Since the conflict in the Middle East broke out at the end of February, the market continued to witness major fluctuations.
According to SBA, the trend of gold prices in the coming time will not only depend on individual events but also be affected by long-term factors such as changes in the global balance of power, monetary policy and the need to diversify central banks' reserves.
In which, geopolitical instability continues to be a key factor. The more volatility in the international market, the more attractive gold becomes as a strategic reserve asset. At the same time, monetary policy also plays an important role in affecting inflation expectations and liquidity conditions.
However, in the short term, political signals and regulatory decisions can have a stronger impact on fundamental factors. Even unconfirmed information about trade policy or sanctions can cause gold prices to fluctuate sharply.
Overall, gold is increasingly asserting its role as an "anchor" in the global financial system, not only through price fluctuations but also through its position in investment portfolios, national reserves and international trade. However, in the current context, stability no longer comes from a separate asset but depends on an overall risk management strategy, in which gold is still an important but not unique component.
