Tonight, November 5, Mr. Mai Van Khiem, Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorology, updated the latest forecast information on the development and impact of storm No. 13 Kalmaegi.
The intensity of the storm is still very strong when making landfall
Sir, what is the forecast for the intensity of storm No. 13 when it makes landfall?
- Currently, the wind speed of storm No. 13 is at level 14, gusting to level 17. The storm's current travel speed is about 20-25 km/h, relatively stable since this morning. It is forecasted that tonight and tomorrow, November 6, the storm will continue to maintain this speed.
It is forecasted that in the next 12-18 hours, the storm is likely to continue to increase in intensity. Currently, the storm is at the beginning of level 14, and may increase to level 14 in the near future, early level 15.
We consider this a particularly dangerous storm, very high intensity and very strong in the East Sea area. When it makes landfall, the storm may still maintain its strong intensity. The time when the storm is likely to affect and impact the mainland is from the evening to tomorrow night, November 6.
Dak Lak, Gia Lai and Quang Ngai are the focus areas for strong winds due to storms
With such strong winds, what dangerous impacts need special warnings, sir?
- Regarding storm No. 13, we have continuously issued warnings in recent days. The dangers of the storm come from many factors such as strong winds, big waves, heavy rain causing flash floods, landslides and widespread flooding in the Central provinces.
It is forecasted that from tomorrow evening to the night of November 6, the storm may affect the Central mainland.
First of all, in the East Sea and coastal areas, with winds reaching level 13-14, gusting above level 17, the waves can be 8 to 10m high. With such winds and waves, this is an extremely dangerous situation for all types of ships, including those with large loads, when operating in the storm-affected area.
In coastal areas, winds may reach level 12, waves 4 to 6m high. In particular, today and tomorrow are high tides, so the storm's surge combined with the tide can reach 0.9 to 1.2m.
With these resonating factors, the operation of boats and aquaculture cages along the coast from southern Quang Tri to Dak Lak will be greatly affected.
On land, the storm's circulation may cause strong winds along the area from Quang Tri to Khanh Hoa. The focus of strong winds is determined in Dak Lak, Gia Lai and Quang Ngai areas, with winds forecast to reach level 10-12, gusting above level 15, or even higher, so it is necessary to continue to closely monitor.
The strong wind zone may also expand to the north due to the combination of cold air masses. The wind may reach level 8-9, gusting above level 10.
A noteworthy point is that storm No. 13 has a fast and strong moving speed, so strong winds do not only appear in the coast but also deep inland. With the forecast direction of movement entering the area between Gia Lai and Quang Ngai, the Central Highlands provinces will be strongly affected. For example, the An Khe Pass area and the highlands may have strong winds of up to level 9-10, gusting above level 12, which is very dangerous, especially in areas with elevated works such as wind power stations.
Heavy rain due to concentrated storms from the afternoon of November 6 to November 7
So regarding the impact of heavy rain, which areas are the focus and when is the peak rain period due to storm No. 13, sir?
- Although the cold air has weakened and the winter wind is not strong, there is little risk of causing record rain like the last one. However, the circulation of storm No. 13 is still forecast to cause very heavy rain in the South Central and Central Central regions, with rainfall possibly reaching 200 to 300 mm. The rainfall was mainly concentrated from November 6 to November 7, not lasting for many days. Localities that need special attention are Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Quang Ngai, Da Nang and Hue City, the southern area of Quang Tri.
Heavy rain from the afternoon of November 6 to the end of November 7, for a period of about 30 to 36 hours. The common rainfall is 200-300 mm, locally up to 500-600 mm.
With such a large amount of rain, the risk is very high for reservoirs, especially medium and small reservoirs in the South Central region and the Central Highlands. Therefore, it is necessary to have proactive solutions to respond to and operate the lake safely, prevent the risk of unsafe dams and flooding downstream.
With heavy rainfall in a short period of time, we especially warn of the risk of a flood on river systems in Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Quang Ngai, Da Nang provinces and Hue city.
In the current conditions of high river water levels, many rivers may have floods above alert level 2 to alert level 3, even some rivers exceeding alert level 3.
Thunder warning before the storm makes landfall
Sir, in some recent storms, although the storm has not yet made landfall, there have been phenomena on the far edge of the storm. So with the intensity of storm No. 13, what is the impact before the storm that needs attention?
- One point we want to emphasize is the particularly high risk of flash floods and landslides in the entire mountainous area west of the Central provinces, as well as the Central Highlands. This time, the Central Highlands is also at high risk of flash floods and landslides.
This is a risk that has been continuously warned in recent days and will continue to be maintained in the coming days. Therefore, localities in the Central and Central Highlands mountainous areas need to be especially vigilant and proactively deploy preventive measures.
In addition, we want to emphasize the phenomenon of thunderstorms. From tonight, although the center of the storm is still far away, thunderstorms and strong gusts of wind may appear in coastal waters. From tomorrow morning, this phenomenon may appear in coastal areas and mainland areas of the Central provinces.
These are pre-storm circulations, caused by a thick cloud system and strong activity of storm No. 13, which can create dangerous thunderstorms.
Sincerely thank you!
