According to Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorology, the latest forecast is that storm No. 12 will make landfall in the area from Da Nang to Quang Ngai around October 23, then weaken into a tropical depression on land with strong winds of level 6, gusting to level 8. Regarding winds, the area most likely to be directly affected by the storm is Da Nang to Quang Ngai.
Mr. Lam said that the storm circulation combined with cold air is not likely to cause strong winds on land, but the rain situation will be very complicated.
"On October 23, when the storm center approaches the shore, it will be the time of heaviest rain on land when there is a combination of storm, cold air, easterly wind disturbances and the terrain of the Central region. This is also a combination of conditions that has caused particularly heavy rain in the Central region in recent years" - Mr. Lam analyzed.
A representative of the meteorological agency said that heavy rain due to the above conditions will occur in the provinces from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai.
From the night of October 22 to October 26, Ha Tinh to the north of Quang Tri and Quang Ngai will have rainfall from 200 - 400 mm, some places over 500 mm.
"The focus area of heavy rain is the south of Quang Tri to Da Nang, about 500 - 700 mm, locally over 900 mm" - Mr. Lam warned about the provinces with the heaviest rain.
The Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting warned that there will be especially heavy rain during the day and night of October 23 when the rainfall may be over 100mm, even over 300mm in some places. Prolonged heavy rains can cause flash floods, landslides in mountainous areas, and deep flooding in low-lying areas and urban areas.
According to Mr. Lam, this is the scenario with the highest probability assessed as of the afternoon of October 20. Notably, although storm No. 12 weakens rapidly after reaching shore, it will cause widespread rain and floods and last even after the storm has dissipated. The reason for the northeast monsoon is still active and distorted after the storm.
Regarding floods, from October 23 to October 30, on rivers from Quang Tri, Hue, Da Nang, Quang Ngai, a major flood will occur, with peak water levels reaching or exceeding alert level 3, causing deep, widespread flooding, accompanied by a high risk of flash floods and landslides. The risk level of natural disasters due to floods is forecast to be level 3.
Therefore, people in the Central region, especially the provinces from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai, need to proactively plan to prevent heavy rain, flooding and landslides, ensuring safety for people and property.
"The rain in the Central region may last until the end of October, even to early November. We would like to emphasize that this is only the first rain in the peak of the rainy season in the Central region this year. In November, there are forecasts of other heavy rains," said Mr. Lam.
