Currently, a tropical depression is active in the eastern sea of the northern part of the East Sea and is likely to strengthen into a storm. Early this afternoon, September 6, Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorology provided information on the developments of this tropical cyclone.
Mr. Mai Van Khiem, how is the probability of this tropical depression strengthening into storm No. 7 assessed at this time and when is it likely to become a storm?
- On the morning of September 6, the tropical depression had a strong intensity of level 7. The operating conditions of this tropical depression are currently quite favorable for development, with sea surface temperatures in the northern area of the East Sea, the area above 15 degrees north latitude currently at 29 - 30 degrees. In the tropical depression's active area, the wind shear is also small, plus the southwest wind in the south is relatively strong.
Therefore, the possibility of this tropical depression strengthening into a storm is up to 70 - 80%. It is forecasted that in the evening and tonight of September 6, this tropical depression will strengthen into a storm.
If it strengthens into a storm, it will be the 16th storm in the Northwest Pacific and will be the 7th storm to operate in the East Sea and according to the international name list, Tapah.
Is it possible that this tropical depression will soon be the 7th storm to make landfall in Vietnam, sir?
- This tropical depression will then form in the northern area of the East Sea, while the subtropical high pressure tongue - the main shape that determines the path, the direction of movement of tropical depressions/storm will tend to weaken.
This tropical depression/storm is located in the western part of the subtropical high pressure tongue. According to the direction, the storm will move northwest mainly. With such a direction of movement, the possibility of the storm moving deep towards the mainland of our country is not high but the possibility of the storm making landfall in mainland China.
Currently, forecasts from international typhoon forecasting centers predict that this typhoon will make landfall in China's Guangdong province around the morning and noon of September 8, which is the second day of next week. When making landfall, the storm's intensity can reach level 10 - 11, gusting to level 13 - 14.
What is the difference between the fact that storm No. 7 can strengthen from this tropical depression and if it hits China, will the storm affect Vietnam's weather, sir?
- This is a storm forming on the tropical convergence zone. The location of the storm's formation is in the northern area of the East Sea, however, the point of storm formation is quite high, in the northern area of the North East Sea and the direction of movement is much higher than the north. The time when typhoons typically hit the North and have begun to shift south and affect the Central region, but this typhoon makes landfall in China.
Although it made landfall in China, after making landfall, storm No. 7 will quickly weaken into a low pressure area, then drift westward, towards our country. It is likely that from the afternoon and night of September 9 to 11, the post-storm No. 7 circulation will cause a large-scale heavy rain in the North, focusing on the midland and mountainous areas of the Northeast.
Sincerely thank you!
