The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change has issued a climate forecast for the 3-month period (from December 2025 to February 2026) based on climate change analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
According to Dr. Truong Ba Kien, Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorological and Climate Research - Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, regarding the activities of ENSO, atmospheric and ocean conditions currently reflect ENSO being in La Nina state. The La Nina state is forecast to last for 3 months from December 2025 to February 2026 with a probability of about 50 - 55%.
Regarding temperature trends, according to this meteorologist, in the next 3 months, the temperature is likely to be approximately the average of many years in most areas across the country.
"The intensity of the northeast monsoon is likely to be stronger than the average of many years in the first half of the season and approximately the average of many years in the second half of winter. Beware of severe cold spells in the main winter months (ie December, January, February). In particular, the northern mountainous areas may experience frost and ice" - Mr. Kien analyzed.
Dr. Truong Ba Kien added that from December 2025 to February 2026, total rainfall is likely to be lower to approximately the average of many years in the North; approximately in the area from Thanh Hoa to Hue city; approximately to higher than the average of many years in the Central and South highlands; higher than the average of many years in the South Central Coast.
"It is still necessary to be on guard against heavy rains in the South Central Coast region in December" - Mr. Kien advised.
According to Mr. Kien, the 2025 - 2026 drought season in the Central and Southern highlands is less serious. The possibility of unseasonal rains will help reduce drought conditions in the area.
Some concepts of ENSO according to the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change:
El Nino: El Nino is a concept used to refer to the phenomenon of abnormal warming of the surface water layer in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is also known as the "hot spot".
La Nina: In contrast to El Nino, La Nina is a concept used to refer to the abnormal cold phenomenon of the surface water layer in the eastern equatorial sea of the Pacific Ocean. La Nina is also known as the "cold flood".
Southern fluctuations (SO): SO is a concept used to refer to the fluctuation phenomenon of the pressure difference between the western and central equatorial Pacific.
ENSO: Because the two phenomena El Nino/La Nina (ocreatic) and SO ( atmospheric) occurring on the equator TBD are closely related, they are linked together into a dual phenomenon, abbreviated as ENSO.
