The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast bulletin on October 18 said that low pressure in the northwest of Borneo island, south of the East Sea is creating a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development and the system may become a tropical depression early next week as it crosses the Malay Peninsula and exits the Western Pacific basin. The JTWC assesses the chance of intensification over the next 7 days as moderate (40%).
On the same day, the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting also said that currently (October 18), in the southern East Sea area (including the waters of the Truong Sa archipelago), the waters from Binh Thuan to Ca Mau and the Gulf of Thailand, there are scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Forecast for the day and night of October 18, the southern sea area of the central East Sea, the southern East Sea area (including the sea area of Truong Sa archipelago), the sea area from Khanh Hoa to Ca Mau, Ca Mau to Kien Giang and the Gulf of Thailand will have scattered showers and thunderstorms.
During thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes and strong gusts of wind of level 7-8. All vessels operating in the above areas are at risk of being affected by tornadoes and strong gusts of wind.
On October 18, JTWC also monitored two other low pressure systems operating in the Western Pacific.
Tropical Depression Invest 93W is currently located near Guam Island (USA). This system has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
Maximum winds near the center of the tropical depression are about 30 km/h. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated at nearly 1,009 hPa.
The second tropical depression - Invest 94W - is currently located near the Northern Mariana Islands. The system has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
The strongest wind speed near the center of tropical depression Invest 94W is about 25-35 km/h. The estimated minimum sea level pressure is near 1,006 hPa.
Favorable conditions for development with low wind shear (18-28 km/h) and very warm sea surface temperatures (31 degrees Celsius) will support the development of this tropical depression in the coming days.
Storm forecast models show tropical depression Invest 94W moving southwest toward the Philippine Sea in the next 24 hours.
