The latest typhoon bulletin on August 3rd from the Taiwan (China) Meteorological Administration CWA said that Typhoon Dolphin, formerly a super typhoon, could bring heavy rain to the north this weekend if the typhoon passes through the Ryukyu Islands and changes direction to approach Taiwan (China).
According to CWA, storm forecast models all agree that Dolphin will move towards the Ryukyu Islands until the end of August 6. However, after this time, models began to give different scenarios for the path of Typhoon Dolphin.
One scenario shows that Typhoon Dolphin will pass through northern Taiwan (China). Meanwhile, another scenario forecasts that the storm will turn towards the Korean peninsula if the subtropical high pressure of the Pacific Ocean currently covering the East China Sea and Taiwan (China) weakens.
Due to many uncertain factors, CWA storm forecasters believe that it is still too early to determine whether Taiwan (China) will issue a storm warning at sea.
Meanwhile, CWA's storm news notes that the tropical depression in the east of the Philippines, locally known as Luis, may have strengthened into Typhoon Kujira on August 3. However, the potential Typhoon Kujira is forecast to weaken on August 4, when most of the moisture of this system is likely to be absorbed by Typhoon Dolphin. The outer circulation of Typhoon Dolphin may begin to affect Taiwan (China) from August 7.
According to forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and CWA, tropical depression Luis is still forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm as it approaches the mainland Philippines.
However, forecasting agencies have not yet agreed on the trajectory of this tropical depression near the East Sea. Some models suggest that the system will turn its head to the sea, while others predict it will land on the Philippines.
On the morning of August 3, tropical depression Luis is operating in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The center of the tropical depression Luis is about 185km east-northeast of the town of Baler, Aurora province, or about 125km east of the town of Casiguran.
This tropical depression currently has the strongest sustained wind near the center of 55 km/h, gusts of 70 km/h and is moving west-northwest at a speed of about 15 km/h.
PAGASA said Luis will continue to move mainly northwest and is likely to make landfall in the northern Luzon island area in the afternoon or evening of August 3.
After that, the system is forecast to gradually shift to the northeast and then east-northeast, leaving the mainland Philippines. However, PAGASA noted that Luis's path is still very uncertain and may continue to change.
PAGASA forecasters believe that Luis will strengthen into a storm in the next 12 hours while still operating in the sea east of central Luzon Island.
However, after making landfall or approaching northern Luzon, the system may weaken back into a tropical depression on August 3rd. After that, Luis will continue to weaken from August 5th and be completely absorbed by the circulation of Hurricane Dolphin.
