Hurricane Milton - the latest storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season - strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane on October 6.
Multiple hurricane forecast models predict Hurricane Milton could rapidly strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane and strike the west coast of the Florida peninsula on October 9.
Milton's landfall comes less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene devastated Florida's Big Bend region as a Category 4 storm.
The Washington Post's latest hurricane news points out that the possibility of another hurricane in Florida is particularly worrying, especially after Hurricane Helene, when coastal residents are still recovering from the storm's effects.
If Milton hits Florida as a hurricane, it will be the fifth hurricane to strike the US Gulf Coast during the 2024 hurricane season, following Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, Francine and Helene.
According to the Washington Post, there are three specific reasons to be concerned about the development of Hurricane Milton:
First, heavy rains are expected to sweep across the Florida peninsula ahead of the main storm midweek, which will soak the ground and increase the risk of flooding, similar to what happened in the southern Appalachians before Hurricane Helene hit.
Second, forecast models for the storm’s intensity have been revised upward. Early last week, forecasts suggested Milton might make landfall as a weak, even unnamed tropical storm. But since then, hurricane experts have significantly raised the bar on Milton’s expected intensity.
Third, if Hurricane Milton makes landfall as a tropical storm, it could still bring dangerous weather to some of the same areas of the western Florida peninsula that were affected by Hurricane Helene.
According to the latest hurricane report from Fox News, given Florida's unique coastline, the angle of landfall could make Hurricane Milton the worst hurricane in more than 100 years to impact parts of west and central Florida.
The region has already been hit by a succession of storms, with impacts from Helene, Debby, Ian and Idalia. And FOX's Hurricane Center warns that Milton's direct landfall angle could make conditions very bad.
Hurricane Milton's path is forecast to pass through or just north of the Tampa-Sarasota metropolitan area, meaning it will accumulate significantly more water than previous storms.
Fox News notes that the US has been preparing for a hurricane to directly hit Florida for years. In 2009, the "Phoenix Project" was created to simulate the impact of a Category 5 hurricane making landfall in the state.
The hypothetical storm is estimated to cause hundreds of billions of dollars in damage, meaning that if it actually happens, it would be the most catastrophic and costly disaster in US history.
Although the National Hurricane Center and a number of hurricane forecasting models do not predict Milton will reach Category 5 strength, there is some precedent for a Category 3 hurricane that made landfall north of Tampa in 1921. The 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane made landfall near Tarpon Springs as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of about 120 mph (190 km/h) and caused extensive damage.
In more than 180 years of data, Tampa has only recorded two direct landfalls by major hurricanes: a Category 3 hurricane in 1921 and a Category 4 hurricane in 1848.
