Contrary to expectations that the gold fever will attract US investors, Goldman Sachs data shows that Americans will hardly own more gold in 2025. This is the reason why the leading investment bank of Wall Street predicts that gold prices still have a lot of room to continue to increase in the coming time.
Goldman Sachs said that although gold prices have continuously hit new peaks, the level of gold holdings by US investors is still almost "stuck". The share of gold in ETFs - the most accessible mass investment channel - is still about 6 basis points lower than the 2012 peak.
The main reason, according to Goldman, is that the size of investors' portfolios has increased faster than the increase in gold prices and trading volume over the past 10 years. This has caused the proportion of gold in US financial assets to gradually "ted down".
Even as gold enters a strong peak break cycle in 2025, US investor holdings have not increased significantly. Second quarter data shows that gold ETFs account for only 0.17% of the total US private asset portfolio - an extremely small figure compared to the size of about 112,000 billion USD that Americans are investing in stocks and bonds.
Goldman also noted that less than half of major US institutions (manpowered in $100 million) hold any gold ETFs. For units that buy gold, the proportion is only around 0.1 - 0.5% of the portfolio. For large long-term investors, gold accounts for only about 0.2% of total assets.
This indifference becomes even more evident when compared to the wave of heated discussions on social media about Americans buying gold bars at Costco or the trend of gold copper collection issued by US mint.
Goldman's report highlights physical demand for gold in the US has been around 11-15 tons since the start of the year - a figure too small compared to around 400 tons of gold that ETFs around the world have hoarded.
What is noteworthy is the big difference between recommendations and actual actions. While major organizations such as Citi, UBS, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and founder Bridgewater Ray Dalio have consistently advised on increasing gold ownership, much of the US market remains cautious.
According to Goldman, it is this gap that could become the driving force for gold prices. The bank estimates that each 1 basis point increase in the US financial portfolio's gold ratio could push gold prices up by about 1.4%.
If households or large organizations decide to add gold as a defensive asset - especially in the context of global macro uncertainty and concerns about fiscal prospects - cash flow can "heat up" a small gold market.
Goldman predicts gold could reach $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026, while stressing that this forecast still has the potential to increase sharply if demand for gold from the private sector spreads, instead of relying solely on central banks as in recent years.
Currently, the world spot gold price, which reached nearly 4,400 USD/ounce at the end of October, has adjusted to around 4,210 USD/ounce, but still increased by about 60% since the beginning of the year - a historic increase, and according to Goldman, that journey is not over yet.
Regarding domestic gold prices, SJC gold bar prices are currently trading around 152.5 - 154.5 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
The price of 9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold rings is trading around 151 - 154 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
