Foreign Policy magazine said that Russia's oil, gas and coal exports continue to grow in the largest markets in Asia, especially China and India.
Even Europe - which has largely abandoned Russian gas since the Ukraine conflict - is quietly buying a lot more gas from the sanctioned country.
Russia's energy export revenue before the Ukraine war was about $1.1 billion a day, and all the sanctions brought that figure down to about $720 million in June this year - but this level is still remarkably stable over the past 18 months.
Russia just recorded a rare current account surplus last month, a sign of growing exports. The West's war on Russia sanctions seems to have reached a dead end, according to Foreign Policy.
“The glass is neither half full nor half empty. The sanctions are effective but not as good as expected,” said Petras Katinas, energy analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
Some aspects of Russia's energy exports have fallen into the abyss, such as pipeline gas exports that have almost disappeared from the lucrative European market.
But Russia's exports of oil and refined oil products - which account for the largest share of the country's revenues - remained essentially flat after the initial shock in the first months after Western sanctions. is applicable. Russia's revenues rose even higher thanks to rising global oil prices.
In order to limit Russia's energy revenue, the West has imposed a ceiling price on Russian oil at 60 USD/barrel. Initially, the price cap worked well, until Russia - with help from its OPEC friends - pushed global oil prices higher, pulling Russian oil prices above the cap as well.
More importantly, Russia has found a reliable way to bypass sanctions on its crude exports by using a "shadow fleet" that avoids Western restrictions on insurance. safety and similar requirements.
Mr. Katinas said that about 4 out of 5 barrels of seaborne crude oil that Russia sells are currently transported on “shadow” tankers, meaning they are completely outside the reach of sanctions. Mr. Katinas said: "The strategy is good, but the tactics are poor, making it difficult to enforce sanctions."
The United States has on several occasions cracked down on some of that trade — late last year against “shadow” tankers and earlier this year against Russian state-owned vessels — by sanctioning vessels individual oil tanker.
CREA estimates that stricter enforcement could cost Russia about 5% of its oil export revenue from October 2023. But there is still a long way to go to ensure thorough enforcement of existing restrictions on Russia's oil trade. CREA estimates that full implementation will cost Russia nearly $22 billion.
US President Joe Biden's administration has tried to tighten barriers to the "shadow" fleet, but they are also concerned that stricter measures could cause gasoline prices to rise just in time. US presidential election 2024 next November.
