In 2025, Russian oil accounted for the majority of India's imports. This is an important source of revenue for Moscow and also helps New Delhi save billions of USD in import bills when discounted.
However, US tariffs, sanctions and months of interruption affect this activity.
However, contrary to predictions, Russian oil flow has shown significant recovery potential. With increasing price reductions, India's trade agreement with the US has not yet been reached, a normal state may lead to significant Russian oil purchases lasting until 2026.
At the highest-level meeting of Indian energy officials, Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said that the market is a decisive factor in India's oil demand.
Pressure from the US is quite clear. India, the country that imported most of the crude oil from the Middle East before the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, has sought to rebalance and return to some traditional suppliers.
Bharat Petroleum Group (BPCL) is seeking to ensure long-term supply from the Middle East, with Murban crude oil packages from Abu Dhabi, Basrah of Iraq and oil from Oman. Meanwhile, Indian Oil and Gas Corporation (IOC) has expanded purchases in the spot market.
However, the price of Russian Urals crude oil is decreasing due to US sanctions against major producers, so the attraction from Russian oil is very large. Many Indian businesses are ordering more Russian oil for unsanctioned shipments.
At its peak, India imported more than 2 million barrels per day. By December 2025, Russian oil imports into India will decrease to about 1.3 million barrels per day and the figure is likely to remain stable in January 2026.
However, analysts and traders involved in buying and selling believe that Russian oil flows to India are unlikely to fall to near zero. India is likely to "maintain a stable amount of Russian crude oil" along with expanding transactions with Middle Eastern suppliers and seeking opportunities from Venezuelan crude oil - Mr. Naveen Das, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler analysis company, said.
India will continue to seek the best prices and highest profits for oil refineries, change its purchasing strategy, and reduce imports from Russia as it has done," he said.
According to government forecasts, India's oil refining capacity from the current 258 million tons may increase to 309.5 million tons per year by 2030. India currently has 41 sources of supply, up from 27 sources a few years ago.
