When Ukraine decided to stop the transit of Russian gas to Europe, Turkey hopes to become an alternative supplier, giving Russia a route to Europe via Turkey's own gas pipeline network, with transportation costs rising. However, in the short term, Turkey's ambitions may not be achieved immediately due to a lack of infrastructure, AGBI pointed out.
From January 1, 2025, Russian gas supplies to Europe via the Ukrainian pipeline have ended due to Kiev's decision not to extend the transit agreement with Moscow.
It is estimated that the closure of the last gas pipeline for Russian gas exports to Europe will cost state energy company Gazprom about 5 billion USD in revenue and Ukraine will lose 800 million USD in transit fees.
Turkey, meanwhile, wants to secure the right to transport Russian gas and this transit fee.
Turkey is already connected to the European market through a large gas pipeline network. Currently, gas from Russia is transported to Turkey via the TurkStream 2 pipeline in the Black Sea. In addition, Turkey has the Trans Anatolian pipeline transporting gas from Azerbaijan. Turkey's third gas pipeline runs from east to west to transport gas from Iran, with some of the gas used in the domestic market and partly for sale to Europe.
However, TurkStream is operating at almost full capacity, pumping more than 15 billion cubic meters per year to customers in Europe, while the Trans Anatolian pipeline - connecting to the Trans Adriatic gas pipeline running through Greece, Albania and to Italy - has a capacity of about 10 billion cubic meters per year but has not yet reached the designed transport capacity.
Mr. Mehmet Ogutcu - Chairman of the London Energy Club - pointed out that the claim that Turkey could immediately replace Ukraine as a transit route for Russian gas to Europe is exaggerated. However, there is still room for increased transit through Türkiye and in the long term, the country has the potential to transit Russian gas.
He pointed out that Turkey's pipeline capacity for Russian gas transit is not enough. Turkey will need to invest in new gas pipelines and pumping stations.
Turkey could benefit from increased gas storage capacity at large-scale facilities it is developing. Turkey could therefore regulate supply and become a major gas trading hub, Bugra Zeynep Ozdemir, an energy researcher at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, pointed out.
Türkiye has long had ambitions to not only become a gas transit country but also a gas valuation country. When the Russia-Ukraine agreement expires, we are likely to see Turkey accelerate its efforts to achieve this goal, he said.
