When Ukraine decided to stop transiting Russian gas to Europe, Türkiye hoped to become an alternative supplier, helping Russia have a route to Europe through its own gas pipeline network, at an increased cost. However, in the short term, Turkey's ambitions may not be achieved immediately due to a lack of infrastructure, AGBI pointed out.
From January 1, 2025, Russian gas supplies to Europe via the gas pipeline in Ukraine have ended due to Kiev's decision not to renew the transit agreement with Moscow.
It is estimated that the closure of the last gas pipeline for Russia to export gas to Europe will cause the state energy company Gazprom to lose about $5 billion in revenue and Ukraine to lose $800 million in transit fees.
Meanwhile, Türkiye wants to win the right to transport Russian gas and the transit fee.
Türkiye is already connected to the European market through a large gas pipeline network. Currently, Russian gas is transported to Turkey via the TurkStream 2 pipeline in the Black Sea. Turkey also has the Trans Anatolian pipeline that transports gas from Azerbaijan. Turkey’s third gas pipeline runs east to west to transport gas from Iran, with some of the gas used domestically and some sold to Europe.
However, TurkStream is operating near full capacity, pumping more than 15 billion cubic metres a year to customers in Europe, while the Trans Anatolian pipeline – which connects to the Trans Adriatic gas pipeline running through Greece, Albania and to Italy – has a capacity of around 10 billion cubic metres a year but has not reached its designed transport capacity.
Mr. Mehmet Ogutcu - Chairman of the London Energy Club - pointed out that the assessment that Türkiye could immediately replace Ukraine as a transit route for Russian gas to Europe is too exaggerated. However, at present, there is still the possibility of increasing the flow of transportation through Türkiye and in the long term, this country has the potential to transit Russian gas.
He pointed out that Türkiye's pipeline capacity to transit Russian gas is not enough. Türkiye will need to invest in new gas pipelines and pumping stations.
Turkey could benefit from the growing gas storage capacity at large-scale facilities it is developing, allowing it to regulate supply and become a major gas trading hub, said Bugra Zeynep Ozdemir, an energy researcher at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research.
“Türkiye has long had ambitions to become not only a gas transit country but also a gas price setter. With the expiration of the Russia-Ukraine agreement, we are likely to see Türkiye accelerate its efforts to achieve this goal,” he said.
