Forecasting the development of wars when Mr. Trump takes power

Bùi Đức |

Donald Trump's return to power could profoundly change the course of wars in the Middle East and Europe.

According to NBC News, the months-long US presidential election could impact allies that depend on Washington's support, from military operations that Israel has deployed in the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon to the battlefield in western Ukraine - where the Russian army is intensifying its attacks.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior Israeli officials immediately congratulated Mr. Trump after the election results were announced, with the Israeli leader calling it “the greatest comeback in history.”

The excited reaction has raised concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East as Israel continues to attack northern Gaza and prepares for possible retaliation from Iran.

Donald Trump has called for an end to the war in Gaza, but has not said how he would do so. During his campaign, he also said he supported what he called Israel’s “right to win the war on terror.”

Meanwhile, senior US officials including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have repeatedly asked Israel to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza and have made efforts to call for a halt to the war in Lebanon.

Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, said he interviewed Republican officials in 2016 who said they were willing to “do whatever it takes to support Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.” Because of this, Gerges expressed concern that tensions in the Middle East would continue to escalate if Trump were re-elected.

The professor added that Mr. Trump would likely respond to any of Mr. Netanyahu's requests for military support, not only allowing Israel to continue its war in Gaza and Lebanon but also increasing the possibility of confrontation with Iran.

As of September 30, 2024, the US has spent about $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel since the war in the Gaza Strip broke out on October 7, 2023, according to Brown University's Costs of War Project.

Ukrainian officials have also welcomed Mr Trump, but Ukraine's future could become more uncertain amid doubts about whether military aid packages under President Joe Biden will be maintained.

Mr. Trump has said he can resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but it will require major concessions from Kiev.

Since Russia launched its military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022, the United States has approved a $175 billion aid package for Ukraine, more than any other country. But if Trump halts that support, Ukraine’s defenses will be severely damaged and it will face a lot of political instability.

However, Ukraine has repeatedly complained in recent months about the limitations of the aid policy of President Joe Biden's administration.

Experts say Mr Trump's victory brings great risks as well as opportunities and only time will tell where this will go.

Bùi Đức
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