In a report released earlier this week, Mr. Dominic Schnider - Head of Commodity and Investment (CIO) of APAC Foreign Exchange at UBS Wealth Management - said that factors such as central bank gold purchases, increased fiscal deficits, lower US real interest rates and prolonged geopolitical risks will continue to support gold prices in the medium term.
We expect gold prices to rise to 5,000 USD/ounce in March 2026, remain around this level until September and then cool down to about 4,800 USD/ounce by the end of 2026" - Mr. Schnider wrote.
According to UBS, commodities in general will play an increasingly important role in the investment portfolio from 2026. The yield of commodity asset groups may be attractive, thanks to supply-demand imbalances, increased geopolitical tensions and long-term trends such as global energy transition.
In which, UBS especially appreciates the opportunities in industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, and the agricultural sector, and considers gold as an effective tool for portfolio diversification.
Regarding oil, UBS said that prices may begin to recover in the second half of the year as the current surplus situation gradually decreases, demand grows steadily and non-OPEC+ supply slows down, in the context of OPEC+'s reserve capacity being limited.
Regarding gold, UBS expects the upward momentum to continue this year and extend to 2026.
Gold prices are likely to continue to rise, supported by central bank buying activity, large fiscal deficits, falling US real interest rates and geopolitical risks remaining," Mr. Schnider emphasized.
Mr. Schnider also noted that gold is in the group with the strongest fluctuations in the market after the US arrested Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on January 3.
Spot gold prices opened up sharply after this development and continued to rise in the following days, at times trading at 4,501.03 USD/ounce.
UBS said they have a very positive view of gold price prospects in the current context. Previously, in a report released at the end of December, UBS commodity strategists said that any increase in political or economic instability related to the midterm election in the US could push gold prices up to 5,400 USD/ounce.
This large Swiss bank recently raised its gold price target to 5,000 USD/ounce for the first 3 quarters of 2026, significantly higher than previous forecasts.
By the end of 2026, UBS forecasts that gold prices will adjust to about 4,800 USD/ounce, still 500 USD higher than the old forecast of 4,300 USD/ounce.
According to UBS, gold demand is expected to continue to increase steadily in 2026, supported by low real yields, prolonged concerns about the global economy and domestic policy instability in the US, especially related to midterm elections and growing fiscal pressure.
World gold price at 3:09 PM on January 7, Vietnam time, traded at 4,463.7 USD/ounce.
Regarding domestic gold prices, SJC gold bar prices at 1:18 PM on January 7 traded at 156.1 - 158.1 million VND/tael (buying - selling). 9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold ring price traded at 155.5 - 158.5 million VND/tael (buying - selling).
