The world gold price at 10:30 on December 3 (Vietnam time) fell to 4,225.56 USD/ounce, as traders took profits before the important US economic data was about to be released. The precious metal lost about 0.37% of its value in one day due to profit-taking by short-term futures traders and improved risk-taking sentiment in the general market.
However, according to FX Street, if we look at it as a whole, the broader outlook is still positive for gold. The precious metal has just recorded its fourth consecutive month of increase in November, breaking the deadlock at the end of August around $3,300/ounce.
Interest rate expectations are still a key supporting factor. The market still expects the US Federal Reserve (FED) to cut interest rates again in December. According to FED tracking tool CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood of interest rate cuts at the December 9-10 meeting has increased to nearly 89%, from 71%, a week ago. Lower interest rates may reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Technical factors and record milestones
Technically, the general trend of gold is still leaning towards increase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling to 59, showing that gold has not been "excessively bought" and there is still room for further increase. The ADX is approaching 21, signaling an increasing trend that is consolidating.
If buyers regain control, the first big challenge will be at December's highest level of $4,264/ounce (December 1). A clear break above this level will put the record high of 4,380 USD/ounce (October 17) back on target, a milestone that could decide whether this uptrend will continue to be strong or not.
In contrast, the nearest support zone is the 55-day moving average around $4,016/ounce, matching the weekly support level of $3,997/ounce (November 18). If it loses this level, the next safe haven is the October floor at $3,886 an ounce (October 28).
The short-term direction of gold will depend on familiar data such as the next decision of the FED, the health of the US economy and whether global tensions ease or not. Weaker US economic data or signs of an loose Fed will continue to support gold.
Although the US dollar is showing signs of a slight recovery and US Treasury yields are showing mixed signals, gold's downward pressure will be limited by expectations of interest rate cuts.
In the domestic market, as of 9:00 a.m. on December 3, the price of SJC gold bars was listed by DOJI Group at 152.8-154.8 million VND/tael (buy - sell), Bao Tin Minh Chau was listed at 153.3-154.8 million VND/tael (buy - sell) and Phu Quyatta Gold Group was listed at 151.8-154.8 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
For gold rings, DOJI Group listed the price of gold rings at 150.6-153.6 million VND/tael (buy - sell), Bao Tin Minh Chau 151.2-154.3 million VND/tael (buy - sell) and Phu Quy Stone Gold Group at 150.6-153.6 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
