In the latest report, WisdomTree, a New York-based investment institution (USA), predicts that the world gold price could reach 3,850 USD/ounce in the second quarter of 2026 according to the base scenario. However, if the Trump administration pursues a policy of weakening the US dollar - simulated as the " Mar-a-Lago Agreement", gold prices could soar to $5,355/ounce, or even higher.
The report points out five key macro risks that could push gold prices to new records.
One is trade instability. Preliminary trade agreements between the US, China and the UK have not satisfied the market, while negotiations with Canada, Mexico and the EU are still ongoing, leading to the risk of widespread tax increases.
The other is the increased government debt. The newly passed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" in the US will increase the budget deficit by more than 3,000 billion USD (including interest) by 2034.
Third, institutional weakness. Increasing political pressure on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised concerns about the independence of central banks.
Four is geopolitical risks. The tense situation in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to develop complicatedly, making gold popular as a safe-haven asset.
Fifth is unpredictable monetary policy. Although there has been no official statement, the moves from the Trump administration show a tendency to weaken the USD.
The term Mar-a-Lago Agreement was coined by WisdomTree analysts, inspired by the 1985 Plaza Agreement when major countries coordinated to reduce the price of the US dollar to improve trade balance.
According to the prediction model, if the US pursues a similar policy, the value of the USD could decrease by 23% within 1 year. Inflation is rising, the bond market is volatile, and gold - as a safe haven - will be actively bought by investors.
WisdomTree also forecasts four gold price scenarios.
In the base scenario, gold prices are expected to reach $3,850/ounce in the second quarter of 2026.
In the bull case scenario, gold prices will reach $4,475/ounce if the US economy is heavily affected by tariffs and the Fed is forced to cut interest rates deeply.
In the bear case, gold could hit $2,700 an ounce if inflation cools, bond yields rise and the USD strengthens.
In the "Mar-a-Lago" scenario, gold prices are forecast to reach $5,355/ounce, thanks to defense needs amid economic and fiscal uncertainty in the US.
WisdomTree notes that the $5,355/ounce level is even defending in the context of all factors converging to promote strong gold prices.
At 8:50 a.m. on August 6, the world gold price was listed around 3,380.1 USD/ounce, not much changed compared to a day ago.
As of 9:00 a.m. on August 6, the price of SJC gold bars was listed by DOJI Group at VND122.2-123.8 million/tael (buy in - sell out).
