The latest storm and low pressure forecast from the Philippine weather agency PAGASA on November 22 said that during the week from November 22 to November 28, no tropical depressions or tropical storms are expected to appear in the PAGASA PMD forecast area.
Forecasters in the Philippines also confirmed that current developments show that there is little chance of a low pressure or storm forming during the forecast period.
However, forecast models in the Philippines predict that from November 29 to December 5, two depressions and storms are likely to appear continuously.
The first low pressure near the East Sea is likely to form in the TCAD forecast area of PAGASA. This low pressure is expected to enter the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) and head towards Visayas - Southern Luzon, Philippines before dissipating.
Notably, the new low pressure in the eastern Philippines is likely to strengthen into a low to moderate storm.
Immediately after this low pressure near the East Sea, a second low pressure is likely to appear in the Sulu Sea (a large sea in the southwest of the Philippines, separated from the East Sea by Palawan Island).
The low pressure in the Sulu Sea forms within the Philippine PAR forecast area and is unlikely to strengthen into a storm. However, Philippine weather forecasters note that this low pressure is likely to move into the East Sea during the forecast period.
In the November 22 bulletin, PAGASA also informed about the paths of tropical storms forming in November at the PAR.
Storms near the Philippines in November usually have 4 main directions: First, storms forming in the western Pacific will enter the PAR but do not make landfall in the Philippines but will circle back northeast of the PAR and turn towards Japan or South Korea.
Second, the storm sweeps south to north or central Luzon then leaves the Philippines and heads towards Japan or South Korea. Third, the storm makes landfall in the central Philippines, then heads towards Vietnam. 4th, the storm enters the southern Visayas and heads towards Thailand.
The storm that formed in December in the Philippine PAR forecast area will have up to 5 main paths of movement. First, the typhoon in the western Pacific enters the Philippine PAR forecast area but does not make landfall but loops east of PAR and turns towards Japan.
Second, the storm formed in the western Pacific, entering PAR but loops back to move northeast of PAR and towards Japan.
Third, the storm near the Philippines makes landfall in Northern or Central Luzon, Philippines then moves into the East Sea towards Hong Kong (China).
In the 5th scenario of the storm path in December, PAGASA said that the storm will make landfall in Southern Luzon - Northern Visayas and then move towards Vietnam.
The final scenario is that the storm near the Philippines makes landfall in Southern Visayas - Northern Mindanao then moves towards Thailand.
On average, the Philippines experiences 20 tropical storms and typhoons each year. Since the last week of October 2024, 6 typhoons have hit the country, of which 4 storms and super typhoons have hit the Philippines in November alone. The most recent storm to hit the Philippines was Super Typhoon Man-yi - the storm that entered the East Sea, becoming the ninth storm.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said it was the first time four typhoons have been recorded in November in the region since records began in 1951.
