The latest storm and depression forecast from the Philippine weather agency PAGASA on November 22 said that during the week from November 22 to November 28, no tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to appear in PAGASA's PMD forecast area.
Weather forecasters in the Philippines also confirmed that current developments show little chance of a low pressure or storm forming during the forecast period.
However, forecast models in the Philippines predict that from November 29 to December 5, two low pressure systems and storms are likely to appear continuously.
The first low pressure area near the South China Sea is likely to form in the PAGASA TCAD forecast area. This low pressure area is expected to enter the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) and move towards the Visayas - Southern Luzon, Philippines before dissipating.
Notably, the new low pressure area east of the Philippines is likely to strengthen into a low to medium storm.
Right after this low pressure near the East Sea, a second low pressure is likely to appear over the Sulu Sea (a large sea in the southwest of the Philippines, separated from the East Sea by Palawan Island).
The low pressure system in the Sulu Sea has formed in the Philippine PAR forecast area and is unlikely to intensify into a typhoon. However, Philippine weather forecasters note that the low pressure system is likely to move into the South China Sea during the forecast period.
In its November 22 bulletin, PAGASA also provided information on the paths of tropical storms forming in November in PAR.
Typhoons near the Philippines in November usually have four main directions: First, typhoons that form in the western Pacific enter the PAR but do not make landfall in the Philippines, but instead circle back to the northeast of the PAR and turn towards Japan or Korea.
Second, the storm sweeps south to northern or central Luzon then leaves the Philippines and heads toward Japan or Korea. Third, the storm hits the central Philippines, then heads toward Vietnam. Fourth, the storm enters southern Visayas and heads toward Thailand.
Typhoons that formed in December in the Philippine PAR forecast area had five main paths of movement. First, the typhoon in the western Pacific entered the Philippine PAR forecast area but did not make landfall, instead it circled east of the PAR and turned towards Japan.
Second, the storm formed in the western Pacific, entered PAR but turned around to go northeast of PAR and headed towards Japan.
Third, the storm near the Philippines makes landfall in Northern or Central Luzon, Philippines then enters the South China Sea towards Hong Kong (China).
In the 5th scenario of the storm's path in December, PAGASA said the storm will make landfall in Southern Luzon - Northern Visayas and then move towards Vietnam.
The final scenario is that the storm near the Philippines makes landfall in Southern Visayas - Northern Mindanao then moves towards Thailand.
On average, the Philippines experiences 20 tropical storms and typhoons each year. Since the last week of October 2024, six storms have hit the country, including four typhoons and super typhoons that hit the Philippines in November alone. The most recent storm to hit the Philippines was super typhoon Man-yi, which entered the South China Sea and became storm number 9.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said this is the first time four storms have appeared in succession in November in this area since it began collecting data in 1951.
