The latest storm news from the Washington Post said that hurricane forecasters are monitoring a low pressure area in the Caribbean that is likely to strengthen into the next storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Some forecast models also predict that this new storm is likely to strengthen into a severe typhoon.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimates a 70 percent chance of the depression developing into a hurricane early next week. The next storm on the list is Patty, followed by Rafael and Sara.
Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica should closely monitor the system.
Meteorologists are closely monitoring the central and western Caribbean, where a large area of low pressure known as the Gyre Central American, or CAG, is located. The depression extends from near Panama and Costa Rica northeast toward Hispaniola.
Washington's hurricane bulletin affirms that this CAG itself is not a concern, but any thunderstorm complex combined with this large-scale low pressure system can be fueled to strengthen and become a storm. This is how Hurricane Milton formed this year.
There are currently two locations where a new storm could emerge in the same way Milton formed. The most likely location for a hurricane is west of the central Caribbean, with a 70% chance of strengthening. While the low pressure area near Puerto Rico could help the cyclone tighten, the chance of strengthening is only about 10%.
The third low in the basin being monitored is west of the Azores, with a 10% chance of strengthening into a typhoon.
The Washington Post's hurricane report points out that a complicating factor for CAG storms like Milton is that they form in a very large, CAG-controlled tornado environment. Where the storm forms will determine the location of the storm in the CAG's rotation, thereby determining whether it will be pushed northeast, north or northwest into the Gulf of Mexico.
Technically, the hurricane season ends on November 30. Typically, November storms form in the western Caribbean - where the waters are still very warm at this time of year.
Of the past 170 years, only four hurricanes have hit the United States in November, including Category 1 hurricane Nicole, which made landfall near Vero Beach, Florida, on November 10, 2022.
So far, the season has been about 26% stronger than average. There have been five hurricanes that have hit the US this year, including Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be intense, but not as extreme as forecasters predicted at the start of the season.
CNN's latest hurricane report notes that the Atlantic hurricane season typically ends in November, but this year's storms have proven that previous patterns may not be true.
This year's hurricane season has seen an above-average number of named storms, hurricanes and super typhoons. However, at the busiest time of the year, the storm season is unusually quiet. Therefore, it is not ruled out the possibility that this November will be a trend that is in contrast to the usual trend.
