The Washington Post's latest hurricane report says hurricane forecasters are tracking a low-pressure area in the Caribbean that has the potential to strengthen into the next hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Some forecast models also predict that this new storm has the potential to strengthen into a violent hurricane.
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimates a 70% chance of the depression developing into a hurricane early next week. The next storm name on the list is Patty, followed by Rafael and Sara.
Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica should closely monitor developments in this system.
Meteorologists are closely monitoring the central and western Caribbean, where a large area of low pressure known as the Central American Gyre, or CAG, stretches from near Panama and Costa Rica northeast toward Hispaniola.
The Washington Hurricane Bulletin states that while the CAG itself is not a concern, any storm complex that combines with this large low pressure system could be fueled to become a hurricane. This is exactly how Hurricane Milton formed this season.
There are two locations where a new storm could form, as Hurricane Milton did. The most likely location is west of the central Caribbean, with a 70% chance of strengthening. Meanwhile, a low pressure area near Puerto Rico could help the cyclone tighten, giving it a 10% chance of strengthening.
The third low in the basin being monitored is located west of the Azores, with only a 10% chance of strengthening into a hurricane.
As the Washington Post’s Hurricane Report points out, one complicating factor with CAG storms like Hurricane Milton is that they form in a very large, CAG-driven vortex. Where the storm forms determines where the storm is in the CAG’s rotation, which in turn determines whether it is pushed northeast, north, or northwest into the Gulf of Mexico.
Technically, hurricane season ends on November 30. Typically, November storms form in the western Caribbean, where the waters are still very warm at this time of year.
In the past 170 years, only four hurricanes have hit the United States in November, including Category 1 Hurricane Nicole, which made landfall near Vero Beach, Florida on November 10, 2022.
So far, the season has been about 26% stronger than average. Five hurricanes have made landfall in the United States this year: Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be intense but not as extreme as forecasters predicted at the start of the season.
CNN's latest hurricane report notes that the Atlantic hurricane season typically ends in November, but this year's storms have proven that previous patterns may not be the case.
This year’s hurricane season has seen an above-average number of named storms, typhoons, and hurricanes. However, the season has been unusually quiet at what is usually the busiest time of year, so it’s possible that November could be a reversal of the usual pattern.
