The weather in Southeast Asia may be affected by a stronger El Nino wave than in previous years, according to warnings from some international meteorologists.
In contrast to La Nina, El Nino is a climate phenomenon that causes reduced rainfall, prolongs droughts and increases temperatures in the region.
The Nation newspaper, Thailand quoted US scientists as saying that an El Nino event with the potential to cause severe and prolonged drought could occur in 2026.
However, climate scientists at the Singapore Weather Service (MSS) believe that it is still too early to assess the severity of the El Nino phenomenon for Singapore and the region.
Meteorologist Koh Tieh Yong at the National University of Singapore said that El Nino forecasts are often less accurate in the spring in the Northern Hemisphere. "In the next 2-3 months, forecasts of El Nino intensity may be significantly updated," he said.
According to MSS, current climate models predict the possibility of El Nino appearing from around July 2026. If formed, El Nino usually affects rainfall in Singapore most strongly in the period from June to October. However, the agency also noted that long-term forecasts at this time are still uncertain.
According to major climate centers in South Korea, Tokyo (Japan) and the United States, the world may witness an average level of El Nino from around May-June, with a probability of about 30% that El Nino is stronger than normal.
Data over the past 30 years shows that during El Nino spells from moderate to strong, rainfall in some areas of Singapore may decrease from 40% to 80% in a few months.
The intensity of El Nino is determined based on the increase in sea surface temperatures in the middle and eastern equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean compared to the long-term average.
Some scientists believe that if the temperature in key areas increases by 2 degrees Celsius or more, it may trigger the "super El Nino" phenomenon, causing extreme heat, drought and widespread forest fires in Southeast Asia.
According to data from the Earth Observatory of Singapore, the super El Nino phenomenon is quite rare, occurring only about every 15-20 years. The most recent strong El Nino occurred in the period 2015-2016, causing the most serious smog crisis in Southeast Asian history.
